Africa Intelligence Brief — Monday, September 21, 2026

Africa Intelligence Brief — Monday, 21 September 2026

Africa’s week turned on accounts owed and on who showed up to give them. In Nigeria the account came grudgingly, from a civil defence corps that first blamed the deaths in its cells on a possible disease outbreak and has since paraded its own detained officers.

Presence became the other measure. Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Africa and Rwanda are sending someone other than their president to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

The count in Nigeria is itself the story. The corps speaks of 33 suspected illegal miners dead in its cells in Minna, the capital of Niger State in north-central Nigeria. The federal government, the state governor, the Associated Press and Nigerian papers count 37.

At home, authority is being tested in the open. Seven Ethiopian armed groups announced an alliance on Sunday to “remove the regime”, Agence France-Presse reported, and jihadists attacked a checkpoint on the edge of Bamako days before Mali’s Independence Day.

Loyalty and indifference are both on display. The Congolese ruling party marches on Tuesday “pour rendre la joie à notre papa, le Président”, and in Tangier a 34-year-old woman told Agence France-Presse before Morocco’s vote: “I expect nothing.”

What steadies the week is real, and each piece carries its caveat. Sudan’s pound firmed for a third session even as a bread protest broke out in Gedaref, a city in eastern Sudan. Frontline Ebola vaccination reached Ituri, the north-eastern Congolese province that was the epidemic’s first epicentre, as the count rose. Suez Canal traffic ran 27 per cent above a year earlier, and Nigerian inflation eased for a third month, though one economist calls the easing weak.

Read in English, French and Portuguese, across the continent’s largest outlets and our own Africa desk. Every figure below carries the source that published it and the date.

Contrition On Parade, And A Count In Dispute

Nigeria’s civil defence corps spent the weekend showing contrition in public. The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps is a federal paramilitary force under the interior ministry. It paraded its detained officers at its headquarters in Abuja, Daily Trust, an Abuja daily, and Vanguard, a Lagos daily, reported. It had first blamed the deaths on a possible disease outbreak, the Associated Press (AP) reported.

Its spokesman, Babawale Afolabi, said three more personnel had been suspended on top of the first 21, “thereby, bringing the number of those in detention to 24”, Daily Trust reported on Monday. The corps said those linked to the case had been in “protective custody” at its headquarters since 17 September, Voice of Nigeria, the state broadcaster, reported.

The commandant general, Ahmed Abubakar Audi, ordered the corps’ flag flown at half-mast for three days from Sunday. The statement gave the purpose as “to signal our collective mourning and our unwavering resolve to purge the system of bad eggs”, Voice of Nigeria reported.

The contrition arrives with a count of its own. Voice of Nigeria reported Audi as promising due process in the investigation into the deaths of 33 suspected illegal miners, and The Authority, a Nigerian daily, carried the same figure from the corps.

Every other account this desk read counts 37. The federal government’s panel is investigating the reported deaths of 37 people, Blueprint, a Nigerian daily, reported, and Daily Trust and Vanguard give the same figure.

Niger State’s governor, Mohammed Umaru Bago, is plain about his number. “Thirty-seven people died. When we arrived at the place, we confirmed that they were dead,” he said, in words Daily Trust carried on Monday.

Early accounts gave varying numbers, the Nigerian news site WithinNigeria reported on 19 September: some said 33 of the suspects had died, and later reports said 37. The reports this desk read leave the corps’ continued use of 33 unexplained, so this edition carries both counts and names who gives each.

Families describe the cells in harder terms. “They chose to beat him up, burst his head open. His teeth were even falling out,” Lawan Mohammed, whose son Sulieman was a 25-year-old motorcycle mechanic, told the AP.

A survivor, Mubarak Dahiru, told the agency: “They beat us as if we were thieves. They also used their guns and hit us with them.” The governor said on Friday that 37 of the 67 people held in one cell had probably died of suffocation, the AP reported.

Bago also relayed what survivors told him. “Some said they even drank their own urine because they were thirsty. Others said they put their noses under the door to get air,” he said, Daily Trust reported.

In Tunga, a community in Minna, 15 of the miners were buried at the mosque. “I lost my son, Sabiu, and nine other close relations and neighbours,” Mohammadu Nuru told Leadership, a Nigerian daily.

The federal answer is a panel with a deadline. The interior minister, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, named a 10-member committee on 19 September, and it has two weeks to report to him, Blueprint reported.

Its chair is Jonathan Kure, a retired senior officer of the Department of State Services, the domestic intelligence agency. Its members include a professor of histopathology, the study of diseased tissue, and the national secretary of the Miners Association of Nigeria.

The minister warned against interference. “Any attempt to destroy or conceal evidence, intimidate witnesses or obstruct the investigation will be treated as a serious offense,” Tunji-Ojo said in a statement quoted by the AP.

One member has set his own terms. Deji Adeyanju, a human-rights lawyer, refused any payment for his panel work, Vanguard reported, and said: “If there is any attempt to shield those responsible or suppress the truth, I will expose it.”

The legal profession wants more than speed. The Nigerian Bar Association said the measure of the response will “not be the speed with which investigations are announced, but rather the independence and thoroughness with which they are conducted”. Per Second News, a Nigerian news site, carried its statement.

Femi Falana, a senior human-rights lawyer, asked the Niger State attorney-general for the “immediate prosecution of all indicted suspects”, Vanguard reported. He also wants detention centres brought up to the United Nations minimum rules for prisoners, known as the Nelson Mandela Rules.

The medical answer is still awaited. Governor Bago said doctors had collected samples and conducted autopsies on some of the bodies, Daily Trust reported, but the results had not been published in any report this desk read by Monday afternoon.

A parade and a lowered flag are gestures a corps can make in a day. The examinations and the panel’s report, due within two weeks, are what will show whether the state’s account matches the families’.

Absent From New York, Challenged At Home

This week Africa’s presence was measured in New York as much as at home. The United Nations General Assembly, where the 193 member states address the world each September, opens its general debate on Tuesday, 22 September.

Nigeria’s vice-president, Kashim Shettima, will speak on Thursday between 4 p.m. and 4.30 p.m. New York time. It will be the third successive Assembly at which he stands in for President Bola Tinubu in the general debate, the Nigerian newspaper Premium Times noted.

In Kinshasa the change is new. President Félix Tshisekedi has asked his prime minister, Judith Suminwa, to represent the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 22 to 26 September, Actualite.cd, a Congolese news site, reported.

Since taking office he had attended the annual meeting in person, the site noted. It gave no reason for the change.

South Africa’s absence had a reported cause. “President Cyril Ramaphosa has a cold,” Daily Maverick, a South African news site, wrote on Sunday. It added that “Lamola will travel to the UN as the President and his deputy recover”, meaning Ronald Lamola, the international relations minister.

Rwanda’s delegation is led by its prime minister, Justin Nsengiyumva, Top Africa News, a pan-African news site, reported. Kenya’s President William Ruto, by contrast, addressed Kenyans living in the United States in New York on Sunday, The Star, a Kenyan daily, reported.

At home, authority is being tested in the open, and most sharply in Ethiopia. Seven armed groups have formed an alliance against the federal government, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported on Sunday.

They include Tigrayan forces, the Amhara nationalist Fano militias and the Oromo Liberation Army, an insurgency in Ethiopia’s most populous region. Federal forces have fought the Oromo Liberation Army since 2018 and Fano since 2023, AFP reported.

The alliance stated its aim plainly. Amanuel Assefa, vice-president of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), told AFP: “We just formed an alliance, we are collaborating with several groups and our objectives are to remove the regime and facilitating a transitional government.”

The TPLF led Tigray’s side in the war of 2020 to 2022, which killed some 600,000 people, AFP reported. Both the government and the TPLF have massed troops along Tigray’s border in recent months, according to the African Union.

AFP reported that the federal government had not responded to its request for comment. Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist at Oslo New University College in Norway, pointed to the government’s numerous drones. He doubted the rebels’ staying power: “I am not sure they will be able to sustain such a war.”

Coordination is the variable he named. If the groups act as one military command, he told AFP, “it may make a difference, it is a potential four to five fronts that the government will have to deal with”.

In Mali, jihadists pressed against the capital itself. Gunmen attacked a checkpoint at Kasséla, on the outskirts of Bamako, on the night of 18 to 19 September, Afrik Soir, an African news site, reported, citing Radio France Internationale, the French public broadcaster. Two soldiers briefly reported missing were found safe on Saturday.

Within 24 hours kamikaze drones struck a drone base at Sévaré, Fratmat, a newspaper in Abidjan, reported through allAfrica. Afrik Soir placed Sévaré about 600 kilometres north of Bamako and said a hangar housing the army’s drones had reportedly been targeted.

Fratmat blamed the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, and wrote that the pressure “brise le mythe d’une capitale sanctuarisée”, breaking the myth of a capital beyond reach. Local security sources now put the losses in the 10 September jihadist attack on the army camp at Dioura, in central Mali, at 100 soldiers and five Russian members of the Africa Corps, the paper reported. The Africa Corps is the Russian force that took over from the Wagner group in Mali. The paper wrote that the toll, “s’il se confirme”, if confirmed, would be among the deadliest for pro-government forces in months.

Mali celebrates the 66th anniversary of its independence on Tuesday, Afrik Soir noted. A chair left to a deputy in New York says little on its own, but beside a rebel alliance in Ethiopia and gunfire outside Bamako it makes presence one of the week’s measures.

Kinshasa Stages Devotion As Ebola Keeps Moving

The ruling party of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is asking the street for a show of love. Its secretary-general, Augustin Kabuya, addressed activists in Kinshasa on Thursday, 17 September. “Le mardi 22 septembre prochain, mobilisons nous pour rendre la joie à notre papa, le Président de la République,” he said, mediacongo, a Congolese news site, reported.

In the desk’s translation, he asked supporters to mobilise on Tuesday to bring joy back to “our papa, the President of the Republic”. On succession he was blunter, saying in effect that one cannot speak of an heir while the king is still on the throne. His words were: “On ne peut pas parler d’un dauphin alors que le roi est encore sur le trône.”

His party, President Tshisekedi’s own, is the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, and its march backs a national dialogue and a referendum to change the constitution, Actualite.cd reported. The opposition fears the change could let Tshisekedi seek a further term beyond the two the constitution allows, the second of which ends after elections due in 2028.

An election-monitoring group has begun to discuss the calendar itself. AETA, a Congolese group campaigning for transparent and peaceful elections, set out three scenarios for 2028, Actualite.cd reported on Sunday.

The first is “un report technique des élections, afin de garantir l’inclusivité du vote”, a technical postponement so that areas now at war can vote too. The group tied that scenario to the return of peace in the conflict zones.

The epidemic keeps its own calendar. Government figures, as Africanews, a pan-African news channel, reported them, counted 7,541 confirmed Ebola cases, including 3,639 deaths, as of Saturday, 19 September.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), the medical charity, has warned against reading too much into quieter wards. Actualite.cd, reporting the warning on Sunday, put the total since May at more than 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths, in seven provinces and more than 60 health zones.

“Considérer que l’épidémie est sous contrôle parce que certains Centres de traitement Ebola (CTE) reçoivent moins de patients serait une erreur,” said Anthony Kergosien, MSF’s emergency coordinator. Treating the epidemic as under control because some treatment centres see fewer patients would be a mistake, he said, and North Kivu now accounts for nearly half of new confirmed cases.

Frontline vaccination has now reached Ituri, the epidemic’s first epicentre, and it is a cautious steadier. Health authorities said on Saturday that the campaign for frontline and health workers targets the Bunia and Mongbwalu zones of Ituri, Africanews reported.

The World Health Organization said last month that 70,000 doses of Ervebo had been approved for use in the country, about 50,000 of them for frontline and health workers. The other 20,000 go to a clinical trial to study whether the vaccine protects against the Bundibugyo virus behind this outbreak.

The caveat is in that trial. Ervebo is being used under a compassionate-use programme, which allows a medical product to be used in a serious disease situation without specific approval for that use, Africanews reported.

“I might still get the disease, but I’m less likely to develop a severe case,” a health worker told Africanews. Ituri’s military governor, Major General Gaby Kasongo Mulumba, said: “Together, we can defeat Bundibugyo virus disease and protect our community.”

A capital staging devotion to its president and a province queuing for a vaccine are the same country in the same week. Tuesday’s march will show how many answer Kabuya’s call.

Gedaref Protests The Price Of Bread As The Pound Firms

In one neighbourhood of Gedaref, a city in eastern Sudan, anger at the price of bread reached the street this weekend, even as the currency offered brief relief. Scores of demonstrators blocked the main road in the Al-Tadamon neighbourhood with burning tyres on Sunday, Sudan Tribune, a Sudanese news site, reported.

“Three loaves of bread now cost 1,000 Sudanese pounds, and bakeries are manipulating weights with no government oversight,” Hassan Ali, a resident, told the paper. That is about US$0.14 at the parallel rate, and he added that a basic salad plate “has reached 10,000 pounds”, about US$1.37.

Local pro-democracy groups backed the protest. “The public taking to the streets over living conditions reflects widespread anger and an inability to meet daily survival needs,” they said, and urged the authorities to avoid a violent response.

The currency moved the other way on the same day. The pound traded at 7,300 to the dollar on the parallel market on Sunday, firmer than 7,600 on Thursday, gaining for a third straight session as speculative buying cooled, traders told Sudan Tribune.

Sudan has no single reliable official rate. On Sunday banks quoted from 3,231.50 pounds to the dollar at the Bank of Khartoum to 4,367 pounds to the dollar at Faisal Islamic Bank, so this edition converts at the parallel rate.

Staples eased with the currency. A 50-kilogram sack of sugar fell to 325,000 pounds (about US$44.50) from 370,000 pounds (about US$50.70) on Thursday, and raw gold traded at about 860,000 pounds a gram (about US$118), the paper reported.

The account of the dead in custody runs through Sudan too. The Sudanese Doctors Network, a medical group, said aid volunteer El Tayeb El Tom Mersal died in Shala Prison in El Fasher. The prison is run by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group at war with the army since April 2023.

The RSF captured El Fasher, capital of North Darfur, in October 2025. The network says more than 3,000 people are held in the prison, in repurposed houses and at the University of El Fasher, with minimal access to medical care, Sudan Tribune reported.

The war itself is moving. Thousands of civilians fled Hamrat al-Sheikh in North Kordofan on Sunday as the army and allied forces advanced on the RSF’s final strongholds in the region, Sudan Tribune reported.

The army said the same day that it had repelled an RSF drone attack on El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan. In New York, the former prime minister Abdalla Hamdok met the UN deputy secretary-general, Amina Mohammed, on Sunday to discuss ending the war.

A pound that firms for three sessions eases a market but not a war. One neighbourhood’s protest in Gedaref, on the same Sunday, shows how thin that relief can feel at the bakery.

South Africa Braces, As Its President Steps Back Into View

South Africa is frightened for its women and bracing for dearer money, and on Monday its president stepped back into view. Daily Maverick had reported on Sunday that a cold had kept Cyril Ramaphosa out of public view, including over the killings in Ekurhuleni.

On Monday he spoke to reporters at an ANC Veterans League fundraising golf day at the Johannesburg Country Club in Woodmead, Independent Online (IOL), a South African news site, reported. The ANC, the African National Congress, is the largest party in the governing coalition.

“Government is there to protect the people of South Africa, plain and simple,” Ramaphosa said. “We will be pulling out all stops to find these perpetrators,” he added, and “Gender-based violence is not only a problem for women, it’s a national crisis.”

Ekurhuleni is the municipality on Johannesburg’s eastern edge, where nine women in their 20s and 30s have been killed over two months, the AP reported. Lieutenant General Tebello Mosikili, the deputy national police commissioner, spoke of the victims “now standing at 10 with the recent discovery in Soweto”, in remarks IOL published on Monday.

Three suspects, a man and two women, were due in Boksburg Magistrate’s Court on Monday over the killing of Jabulile Ntimba, about 30, found in Dawn Park on 17 September, IOL reported. The AP reported that investigators had not linked them to the eight other killings.

Mosikili pointed to a relationship behind Ntimba’s death. “This describes the possible love triangle,” she said, and added: “We are still connecting the dots.”

Firoz Cachalia, who leads the police ministry, said there was so far no conclusive evidence of a serial killer, the AP reported. He added that “nothing has yet been excluded while investigations continue”.

The fear shows on the helpline. South Africa’s Gender-Based Violence Command Centre received 589 calls in a single day, its highest in the first half of September, IOL reported.

Its 6,782 calls from 1 to 16 September were 21 per cent more than in the same period of August, the Department of Social Development said. IOL tied the rise to growing fear over the women’s deaths.

Money is the other worry. The South African Reserve Bank decides on Wednesday at 3 p.m. South African time, and markets were pricing a near 85 per cent chance of a rise of a quarter of a percentage point, IOL reported.

That would lift the repo rate (the rate at which the Reserve Bank lends to commercial banks) from 7.00 to 7.25 per cent, and the prime lending rate from 10.5 to 10.75 per cent. A new 1.5 million rand home loan (about US$92,560) could cost more than 60,000 rand (about US$3,700) extra over 20 years, the site reported.

Economists are not unanimous. Investec’s Lara Hodes expects August inflation at a “relatively contained 4.5% year-on-year”, and Johann Els of PSG Financial Services still expects the bank to leave rates unchanged.

What steadies South Africa is that its institutions keep working through the fear. Three suspects are due before a court, the helpline is answering more calls, the president is back in public, and the rate decision arrives on schedule.

Cairo And Addis Ababa Argue Over Whose Reality Stands

Egypt and Ethiopia spent the weekend arguing, in almost the same words, over whose reality stands on the Nile. The dispute turns on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a large hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, because Egypt, in its water minister’s words, “relies almost entirely on the Nile”.

Getachew Reda, adviser to Ethiopia’s prime minister on East African affairs, set out Addis Ababa’s view in remarks the state Ethiopian News Agency published on Saturday. “Egyptians are very good at creating an artificial reality,” he said, and “Geography is stable. You cannot change geography.”

Egypt’s water minister, Hani Sewilam, spoke at a briefing in Cairo on Sunday. “The passage of time does not mean that Egypt accepts the reality imposed on it,” he said, The National, a newspaper in Abu Dhabi, reported.

Sewilam put numbers to the grievance. Water available per person has fallen to about 472 cubic metres a year, below the 500-cubic-metre line for absolute scarcity, The National reported. More than 98 per cent of Egypt’s renewable water comes from beyond its borders.

Ethiopia’s state news agency also pressed its case for the sea. “We are not looking for confrontation on Nile. We are not looking for confrontation on the Red Sea. We are looking for cooperation,” said Birhanu Lenjiso, co-founder of the East African Policy Research Institute, in remarks the agency published on Sunday under the headline “Sovereign Sea Access Inevitable for Ethiopia”.

Egypt’s steadier runs through its canal. In August 1,358 vessels transited the Suez Canal, 27 per cent more than the 1,070 of a year earlier, and revenue reached US$567.1 million against US$326 million, Egyptian Streets reported.

The recovery starts from a deep fall. Canal revenue dropped to US$3.991 billion in 2024 from a record US$10.25 billion in 2023, Egyptian Streets reported, and the site linked the fall to regional tensions and attacks on ships by the Houthis. The Houthis are the Iran-aligned movement that holds much of northern Yemen.

Egypt’s finance minister said the country lost around 145 billion Egyptian pounds in canal revenue in the 2024/25 financial year, Egyptian Streets reported. That is about US$2.79 billion at the Central Bank of Egypt’s rate on 21 September, and the minister gave it as about US$3 billion.

Two governments invoking reality at each other are still arguing, and arguing is not fighting. The canal’s returning ships are this week’s reminder of what calm on the water is worth to Cairo.

Abuja Waits, With One Eye On The Election

Nigeria’s economic mood is one of waiting, and the election calendar is part of the reason. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sits on 21 and 22 September with its policy rate at 26.50 per cent, unchanged since February, and announces its decision on Tuesday.

Inflation is easing, but slowly. Headline inflation fell to 15.39 per cent in August from 15.43 per cent in July, BusinessDay, a Lagos business daily, reported. Cowry Research, a Nigerian investment research firm, expects 15.19 per cent in September, Leadership reported.

“Inflation is easing, weakly,” Ayo Teriba of Economic Associates, an economic consultancy, said in Leadership, a Nigerian daily. He also tied the decision to the political calendar: “So, no central bank is going to ease four months to election.”

Standard Chartered, the bank, also expects a hold, with any easing after the election. “We see the CBN on hold at 26.5 percent in September; post-election easing will likely be preferred,” it said, BusinessDay reported.

Oil is the other reason analysts give for caution. November Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled at US$103.87 a barrel on Friday. It was trading near US$100.84 at 13.48 UTC on Monday, after opening higher on weekend Houthi attacks on Riyadh and an Aramco site at Yanbu in Saudi Arabia.

The election is also the backdrop to an old contract’s return. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), the anti-corruption agency, has set up a team to investigate people named in an arbitration ruling on the Mambilla hydropower project, Premium Times reported on Sunday. Those named include Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president who ran for president in 2023. Mambilla is a long-planned dam on the Mambilla Plateau in north-eastern Nigeria.

The International Chamber of Commerce tribunal, ruling on Thursday, 17 September, rejected a US$680 million claim by the company Sunrise Power against Nigeria and ordered it to refund US$11.8 million of Nigeria’s legal fees. It said a US$500,000 payment in 2003 to Atiku’s former wife raised “significant red flags”, Premium Times reported.

Atiku’s spokesman, Phrank Shaibu, rejected the inference. “A commercial arbitration did not indict Atiku, did not convict Atiku and cannot be transformed into a criminal verdict by repetition,” he said.

Morocco’s Young Voters Expect Little Of Wednesday

Morocco votes on Wednesday, 23 September, and its young voters speak of the election with a shrug. “Politicians don’t care about us. They only care about their own interests,” Yassine Hasnaoui, a 28-year-old unemployed man, told the AP.

Official data put unemployment at 13 per cent in 2025, and at 37 per cent among people aged 15 to 24, the AP reported. People aged 18 to 24 are roughly 12 per cent of the population but just 4 per cent of the 15.8 million registered voters.

Agence France-Presse heard the same doubt. In Tangier, Zoubaida, 34, said: “I expect nothing.” Haitham Atifi, 20, told the agency: “I don’t think there is a party capable of creating jobs for young people.”

Some are voting anyway. Haitham Arakchou, 28, told AFP he hoped the next government would “improve the social situation and raise the minimum wage”. The political scientist Mohamed Chiker named the first challenge as “restoring voters’ trust, particularly among young people, in political life”.

Voters will choose among 7,288 candidates from 27 parties for 395 seats in the House of Representatives, the elected lower house, the AP reported. The party that comes first leads the effort to form the next government.

São Tomé and Príncipe, the Portuguese-speaking island state in the Gulf of Guinea, votes four days later, on Sunday, 27 September, for its 55-seat National Assembly, its local councils and Príncipe’s regional assembly. The campaign opened on Saturday, 12 September, the island news site Téla Nón reported.

The largest party in the outgoing assembly, the Independent Democratic Action of former prime minister Patrice Trovoada, is split, and the Constitutional Court recognised a rival, the prime minister Américo Ramos, as its leader. In August Trovoada urged his supporters to stay at home rather than vote, Correio da Manhã Canadá, a Portuguese-language paper, reported.

Kenya Campaigns Early, And Dares Its Doubters

Kenya is campaigning early, and its leaders are daring their doubters. On Saturday, 19 September, councils of elders installed Deputy President Kithure Kindiki as spokesperson of the Mount Kenya region, the populous central highlands. The ceremony was at Kirigiti Stadium in Kiambu County, People Daily, a Nairobi daily, reported.

The former deputy president, Rigathi Gachagua, disputed the installation, and Kindiki answered his critics in Tharaka, in Tharaka Nithi County east of Mount Kenya. “And if you feel you are very popular, I dare you to contradict what the elders have decided, I dare you,” he said, as People Daily reported on Monday.

President William Ruto spoke to Kenyans living in the United States in New York on Sunday. “I can confidently tell you that we’ve stabilised the economy,” he said, citing foreign reserves up from US$5.7 billion to US$15.3 billion, The Star reported.

“Have no doubt in your mind, forget about the fake stories, these are numbers that you can verify with our Central Bank,” he added. The figures are the president’s own, offered to a diaspora audience with the general election due in 2027. Between “fake stories” and “I dare you”, Kenya’s leaders sound like men answering doubters before anyone has voted.

What This Means From Latin America

Latin America knows the argument now running in Kinshasa. Bolivians voted in a 2016 referendum against letting Evo Morales stand again, and the country’s constitutional court later cleared him to run anyway.

Oil links the continents more directly. Brent crude settled at US$103.87 a barrel on Friday, 18 September, and was trading near US$100.84 at 13.48 UTC on Monday. That barrel is revenue for Brazil’s Petrobras and Colombia’s Ecopetrol, and a pump price in Lagos.

The same barrel is one reason analysts quoted by BusinessDay expect Nigeria’s rate setters to wait. It is also part of the pressure on South Africa’s Reserve Bank, Independent Online reported, which markets expect to raise rates on Wednesday.

Brazil’s Selic (the benchmark interest rate) stands at 13.75 per cent, between Nigeria’s 26.50 and South Africa’s 7.00. Three central banks sit at three very different rates, and each is watching the same barrel.

The Suez recovery matters on this side of the Atlantic too. Shorter routes between Asia and Europe change the freight arithmetic that Latin American exporters compete with in both markets.

What We Are Watching

• Tuesday 22 September: Nigeria’s rate decision — the Central Bank of Nigeria announces its decision with the policy rate at 26.50 per cent. Standard Chartered expects a hold, BusinessDay reported.
• Tuesday 22 September: the Congolese ruling party’s march — the Union for Democracy and Social Progress marches in support of a national dialogue and a referendum to change the constitution.
• Tuesday 22 September: Mali’s Independence Day — the 66th anniversary falls days after the attacks at Kasséla, on the edge of Bamako, and at Sévaré, Afrik Soir reported.
• From Tuesday 22 September: the UN General Assembly debate — Judith Suminwa attends for the DR Congo from 22 to 26 September. Kashim Shettima speaks for Nigeria on Thursday 24 September at 4 p.m. New York time.
• Wednesday 23 September: Morocco elects its lower house — 7,288 candidates from 27 parties contest 395 seats, and 15.8 million voters are registered, the AP reported.
• Wednesday 23 September, 3 p.m. South African time: the Reserve Bank decides — markets priced a near 85 per cent chance of a rise from 7.00 per cent, Independent Online reported.
• This week and next: the Niger State examinations and panel — Governor Bago said doctors had collected samples and conducted autopsies, Daily Trust reported. The federal panel named on 19 September has two weeks to report.
• Sunday 27 September: São Tomé and Príncipe votes — the 55-seat National Assembly, local councils and Príncipe’s regional assembly are elected together.

Sources: Central Bank of Nigeria, South African Reserve Bank, Central Bank of Egypt, United Nations, Ethiopian News Agency, Voice of Nigeria. Also Associated Press, Agence France-Presse, Daily Trust, Vanguard, Blueprint, Leadership, The Authority. And Premium Times, Per Second News, BusinessDay, Daily Maverick, Independent Online, Sudan Tribune, Arab News. With Actualite.cd, mediacongo, Africanews, Afrik Soir, allAfrica, Top Africa News. Plus The National, Egyptian Streets, The Star, People Daily, Téla Nón, Correio da Manhã Canadá · 17-21 September 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do the counts of the Minna dead differ?

The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, a federal paramilitary force, speaks of 33 suspected illegal miners dead in its custody, in statements carried by Voice of Nigeria and The Authority. The federal government, Niger State’s governor, the Associated Press and Nigerian papers including Daily Trust count 37, and the reports this desk read leave the gap unexplained.

Which African presidents are missing from the UN General Assembly?

Nigeria is represented by Vice-President Kashim Shettima, the Democratic Republic of the Congo by Prime Minister Judith Suminwa, South Africa by International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola, and Rwanda by Prime Minister Justin Nsengiyumva. Daily Maverick reported on Sunday that President Ramaphosa had a cold, and he spoke to reporters in Johannesburg on Monday, IOL reported, while Actualite.cd gave no reason for President Tshisekedi’s change.

What is Ethiopia’s new rebel alliance?

Seven armed groups, among them Tigrayan forces, the Amhara nationalist Fano militias and the Oromo Liberation Army, announced an alliance against the federal government on 20 September, Agence France-Presse reported. A Tigrayan leader said its aims are to remove the government and bring in a transitional one.

What do Nigeria, South Africa and Morocco decide this week?

The Central Bank of Nigeria announces its rate decision on Tuesday, 22 September, with its rate at 26.50 per cent, and the South African Reserve Bank announces on Wednesday, 23 September, at 3 p.m. South African time, with its rate at 7.00 per cent. Morocco elects its House of Representatives the same Wednesday, with 27 parties contesting 395 seats.

The Big Picture

Africa: The New Scramble — why the world’s powers are competing for the continent

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