2024 Soybean Outlook: Brazil Expects Export Decline

Abiove, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, recently revised Brazil’s soybean harvest estimate for 2023/24 to 161.9 million tons.

This figure falls short by 2.8 million tons compared to the November forecast but still sets a new record high for the country’s soybean production.

Despite encountering climatic challenges in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top soybean-producing state, Abiove remains optimistic.

Anticipating a 2.4% surge in soybean harvest from the prior year, Brazil, acknowledged worldwide for its dominance in soybean production and trade, foresees unparalleled processing volumes.

However, alongside this record processing, the country anticipates a marginal decline in exports, projecting a shipment figure of 100.2 million tons for 2024.

Looking ahead to 2024, Abiove forecasts a remarkable milestone in soybean processing, expecting to reach 54.5 million tons.

This surge is primarily propelled by the anticipated increase in biodiesel blend rates from 12% to 13%, set to commence in April.

The rise in blending percentage reflects the growing demand for soybeans, which serve as a crucial ingredient in biodiesel production.

Abiove also highlights the necessity for adjustments in supply and demand figures to accommodate further increases in biodiesel blending rates.

Rise in domestic soybean oil consumption

Moreover, Brazil foresees a record soybean meal production of 41.7 million tons in 2024.

The soybean oil production is also expected to escalate to 11 million tons, signaling an increase from the previous year.

This notable growth aligns with the rise in domestic soybean oil consumption, largely driven by the higher biodiesel blending rates.

Yet, Brazil expects a dip in 2024 soybean oil exports after a record high in 2023. This drop results from increased usage in biodiesel and cooking oil production.

Abiove ensures Brazil’s capability to meet the escalating demand for biodiesel production.

The association also indicates that Brazil possesses the potential to expand domestic soybean oil processing if there’s a surge in global demand.

Despite the projected decrease in soybean production, Brazil is poised to maintain a substantial supply, with end-of-year stocks in 2024 estimated at over 10 million tons.

The industry boasts a robust annual crushing capacity of 69 million tons, ready to cater to diverse market demands.

Abiove predicts Brazil’s 2024 soybean export revenue at $64 billion, slightly lower than the record $67 billion in 2023, attributed to decreased prices.

Nevertheless, soybeans persist as Brazil’s primary export commodity, underscoring its paramount importance in the global agricultural market.