Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop is estimated to hit a record 158 million tonnes despite adverse weather in the Midwest.
Pedro Fernandes, Director of Agribusiness at Itaú BBA, revealed this during a 2023 review and 2024 outlook presentation. He expressed optimism, labeling this the best estimate yet.
This projection accounts for good rainfall expected in December, signaling improved weather conditions in the Midwest.
Cesar Alves, Agro Consulting Manager at Itaú BBA, mentioned that contrary to expectations, El Niño brought intense heat and scarce rain to Mato Grosso, a major soybean producer.
Despite reduced projections from private analysts, Brazil’s soybean potential remains high. The previous cycle saw a harvest of 154.6 million tonnes.
The projected increase is supported by expanded planting areas and favorable harvests expected in the southern states.
Alves remains cautiously optimistic about soybean prospects, citing Mato Grosso’s history of resilient yields.
However, he emphasized the dependence of this forecast on December’s rainfall. Without rain, the Midwest’s crop outlook could worsen.
If realized, a harvest of 158 million tonnes will satisfy both domestic and international markets.
Brazil could export about 100 million tonnes of soybeans next year, slightly down from an earlier potential of 103 million tonnes but up from 98.1 million tonnes in 2023.
Situation for corn is more complex
The situation for corn, however, is more complex. The delayed soybean planting has cast uncertainty over the second-season corn crop.
The impact on Midwest corn will become clear in February, following the completion of the soybean harvest.
Originally, there was intent to reduce corn planting area due to lower profit margins. Now, with the added risk from soybean planting delays, farmers might further cut back corn planting.
Itaú BBA aligns with Conab’s corn scenario, forecasting a decrease in Brazil’s corn production to 119.1 million tonnes in 2023/24, from 131.8 million tonnes previously.
This decrease implies a drop in corn exports to 38 million tonnes next year, relinquishing Brazil’s position as the global top corn exporter to the U.S.
This change reflects the interconnected nature of crop cycles and market dynamics.
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