Will Argentina Elections Halt Shift to Right-Wing Governments in Latin America?

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – In current surveys in Argentina, the candidate of the Peronist camp, Alberto Fernández, is still 20 percentage points ahead of the incumbent president Mauricio Macri.

According to a study conducted by the Opina opinion research institute after the first television debate among all candidates, Fernández currently attracts some 52 percent of the electorate, while Macri only gets 32 percent.

All other candidates are clearly below ten percent and therefore have no chance of winning. The presidential elections on October 27th might thereby already be decided in the first ballot. Achieving either more than 45 percent or more than 40 percent of votes with at least ten points ahead of the runner-up is sufficient.

Given the current economic data, Macri is extremely unlikely to catch up at the last minute. Monthly inflation in September was 5.9 percent, and annual inflation was 53.5 percent compared to September last year.

This is linked to the sharp depreciation of the peso following the results of the primary elections on August 11th. Although Macri’s government-enforced price control measures after their defeat, including the suspension of VAT on some staple foods, the 5.7 percent increase in food prices in September was only minimal.

For the coming year, the International Monetary Fund, Argentina’s most important creditor, is again forecasting inflation of around 40 percent and a slump in economic output of 1.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Together with the current debt burden of almost 100 percent of GDP, this results in extremely difficult conditions for the coming government.

Meanwhile, the first television debate among all candidates took place last Sunday. In addition to Macri and Fernández, speakers included Roberto Lavagna (Consenso Federal), Nicolás del Caño (Frente de Izquierda y Trabajadores), José Luis Espert (Frente Despertar) and Juan José Gómez Centurión (Frente NOS).

Macri again pledged an improvement in the economic situation in the event of a second term and promised economic relief for the middle class. Alberto Fernández accused him of complete failure in economic matters and promised a “policy of consensus between industry, agriculture, the working population, and the state”.

On the issues of gender justice, human rights and health, Macri highlighted achievements such as plans for gender equality, fighting violence against women and the “reform” of pension insurance. Fernández, on the other hand, referred to the insufficient budgetary resources for these reform projects.

The health budget, for instance, has been cut by 23 percent, while interest rates have risen by 70 percent over the same period.

Regarding foreign policy, Fernández again stressed the importance of regional integration in Latin America. To this end, the South American economic alliance Mercosur must be revitalized and strengthened. Only then would it be possible to enter into negotiations with the European Union on a trade agreement.

In the case of Venezuela, he spoke out clearly against intervention, for the maintenance of relations and for the search for internal political solutions to the conflict. Macri, on the other hand, agreed that there could be no neutral position in the case of Venezuela and accused Fernández and his camp of supporting a “dictatorship”.

Nicolás del Caño, on the other hand, drew parallels to the case of Ecuador. Macri is currently supporting a government that is openly repressing its own people. He described Macri as US President Donald Trump’s “bootlicker”.

At a joint press conference with Daniel Martínez, the Uruguayan presidential candidate of Frente Amplio, Fernández recently expressed more detailed views on his foreign policy plans. Should he be elected, Argentina would withdraw from the Lima Group, which officially acknowledges opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s president.

Both candidates stressed the importance of enhanced continental cooperation in industry and technology. They spoke out in favor of the revival of Mercosur and criticized the disintegration of the South American alliance Unasur in favor of the alliance Prosur, founded by right-wing governments.

Source: Amerika21