USA & Canada Intelligence Brief — Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Executive Summary
USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for August 11: four days after weak jobs data killed rate-hike bets, an oil rally revived them, with the 30-year Treasury
Rio Times · USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 11
Key Facts
—The reversal Markets are again pricing a Federal Reserve rate rise in September, four days after weak employment data had all but removed it, while one Fed dissenter says her view never changed.
—Yields snap back The ten-year Treasury yield rose above 4.72% overnight after touching about 4.61% on Friday morning.
—The long end The thirty-year yield sits above 5%, having risen alongside the ten-year on Monday.
—Oil did it Brent traded around 88 dollars a barrel on Tuesday after four consecutive sessions of gains.
—Wednesday’s test July consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.1% after a 0.4% fall in June, with the annual rate seen easing to 3.4%.
—Canada firm The Canadian dollar held near a two-month high, with the exchange rate around 1.3930 to the American dollar.
USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 11 — On Friday America decided its central bank would not be raising rates, and by Tuesday it had changed its mind.
Nothing about the American economy changed in between. The price of a barrel did.
United States – Four Days, Two Opposite Conclusions
The rally that has already been undone
On Friday employers were reported to have cut 23,000 jobs, the ten-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.61%, and expectations of a September rate rise collapsed. Shares finished the week at a record.
By Tuesday morning that yield was back above 4.72% and markets were once again increasing their bets on a rise. The employment data has not been revised and nothing in the American economy has changed.
What actually moved
Crude has climbed for four consecutive sessions, with Brent around 88 dollars a barrel on Tuesday and West Texas near 83. The move follows the unresolved status of a shipping lane through which much of the world’s oil passes.
A country that had just been reassured about its own labour market has been unsettled by a tanker route it does not control. That is the whole of this week’s story so far.
The Federal Reserve – A Committee With No Comfortable Option
Some number of hikes
The president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve told an interviewer on Monday that a single quarter-point move probably does little for the economy, so it is probably some number of movements, while declining to say how many. She dissented at the July meeting in favour of a rise and says the weak employment report did not change her view.
She also says policy is not meaningfully restricting the economy at current levels, and likens the task to pumping the brakes before a stop sign rather than slamming them. That is one of the three July dissenters not flip-flopping at all while the market did.
Which is why Wednesday now matters more than Friday did
July consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.1% after falling 0.4% in June, with the annual rate easing to 3.4% from 3.5% and the underlying measure at 2.5%. Producer prices follow on Thursday, expected up 0.2% after a 0.3% decline.
The inflation print now carries more weight than the jobs report did. A soft reading would restore the bond rally that Friday started and oil interrupted.
The Bond Market – A Long End Nobody Is Discussing
Twenty-year highs at the far end
While attention sits on the ten-year yield and the September meeting, the thirty-year sits above 5%, having risen alongside the ten-year on Monday. Several Treasury auctions land this week into exactly that.
The long end prices fiscal expectations rather than the next rate decision. It is where the market says what it thinks about borrowing over a generation.
A signal worth more than the noise around it
A thirty-year yield above 5% is not primarily a comment on July employment or on the price of Brent. Chairman Kevin Warsh pointed repeatedly to higher bond yields at the July meeting, so it is not being ignored inside the building either.
The mood here is quiet rather than dramatic, which is why almost nobody is writing about it. Long yields move slowly and are extremely difficult to reverse.
On Friday a weak jobs report removed the case for higher American rates, and by Tuesday a barrel of oil had put it back — the same market reaching opposite conclusions in four days, on a variable decided nowhere near Washington.
Corporate America – The Earnings Holding It Up
Two percent from the highs
The technology index sits about 2% below its all-time high, having fallen almost 10% from its previous peak during July. Strong results across several sectors have carried it back.
Analysts point specifically to evidence that heavy spending on artificial intelligence is beginning to show returns. That has eased a nervousness that dominated the market only weeks ago.
A market resting on two legs, not one
Equity strength is currently coming from company results rather than from any expectation about interest rates, which is a healthier foundation than the one Friday provided. More technology earnings arrive later this week.
The temper of the market is watchful rather than euphoric. Investors are holding position rather than adding to it.
Canada – Paid to Be an Oil Exporter
A currency near a two-month high
The Canadian dollar strengthened for a third consecutive session, trading around 1.3930 against its American counterpart and close to a two-month high. Canadian ten-year yields sit near 3.68%, more than a full point below American equivalents.
The reason is the same barrel that unsettled Washington. Canada is a major crude exporter and its currency responds accordingly.
The same event, read two ways
One analyst house expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates unchanged through 2026, a settled position that contrasts sharply with the American argument. Ottawa has the quieter central bank and the better currency week.
None of it changes what happens on 19 August, when a 50% American tariff lands on roughly 20 billion dollars of Canadian goods. Eight days from now, and a firm currency will not help.
What This Means From Latin America
The commodity read runs both ways
A crude price near 88 dollars is revenue for Colombian, Brazilian, Mexican and Guyanese producers and a cost for everyone importing refined fuel, with Canada’s currency response this week the cleanest available illustration of which side a country sits on. American strategic reserves have meanwhile fallen below 300 million barrels, their lowest since 1983.
Regional currencies exposed to oil will be reading the same tape. The difference is that Canada’s central bank is expected to sit still while several Latin American ones cannot.
Watch the long end, not the September meeting
A thirty-year American yield above 5% sets the floor under emerging-market borrowing costs, and it moves largely independently of whatever the Federal Reserve decides next month. Regional issuers refinancing in the coming year will pay for that level regardless of the September outcome.
Wednesday’s inflation figure will move the short end and the headlines. The long end has already made its judgement and is unlikely to revise it quickly.
The Bigger Picture
Four days ago a weak employment report sent American yields to about 4.61% and removed the case for a September rate rise. By Tuesday the ten-year was back above 4.72%, markets were rebuilding those bets, and the only thing that had changed was the price of oil.
Brent traded near 88 dollars after four consecutive sessions of gains, and a Federal Reserve official spoke of needing some number of increases rather than one. July consumer prices arrive Wednesday, forecast at 0.1% with the annual rate easing to 3.4%, and now carry more weight than the jobs report did.
For Latin American readers there are two reads and they point in different directions. A firmer barrel is revenue for the region’s producers and a cost for its importers, while a thirty-year American yield above 5% sets a floor under regional borrowing costs that no single central bank meeting will lift.
USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 11: What We Are Watching
- Wednesday – July consumer prices, forecast at 0.1% on the month and 3.4% over the year.
- Thursday – Producer prices, expected up 0.2% after a 0.3% decline.
- This week – Treasury auctions arriving into a thirty-year yield above 5%.
- 19 August – The 50% American tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods.
- September – The Federal Reserve meeting, where a rise is being priced again.
- Ongoing – The crude price, which has moved American rate expectations twice in four days.
Go Deeper
The full US & Canada Intelligence Dossier — the interactive risk dashboard and the six people who matter — is updated daily by the Rio Times Intelligence Desk.
More from the Rio Times Intelligence Desk on August 11: the Africa Intelligence Brief, the Asia Intelligence Brief and the Europe Intelligence Brief. For how these stories developed, see the USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for August 10 and the USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for August 7.
The USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 11 returns tomorrow morning.
The Big Picture
Frequently Asked Questions
Why have American rate expectations reversed in four days?
Friday’s employment report, showing employers cut 23,000 jobs, sent the ten-year Treasury yield to around 4.61% and largely removed expectations of a September increase. Crude has since rallied, with Brent trading around 88 dollars a barrel, pushing the ten-year back above 4.72% and prompting markets to rebuild bets on a rise, without any change in the underlying employment data.
What is expected from Wednesday’s inflation report?
July consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.1% on the month after a 0.4% fall in June, with the annual rate easing to 3.4% from 3.5% and the underlying measure at 2.5%, according to a Reuters poll. Producer prices follow on Thursday, expected to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% decline, with the annual rate seen at 4.9% after 5.5% in June.
What is happening at the long end of the bond market?
The thirty-year Treasury yield sits above 5%, having risen alongside the ten-year on Monday, with several Treasury auctions scheduled this week. The long end reflects fiscal expectations rather than the next policy decision, which is why it matters more for long-term borrowing costs than the September meeting does.
Why is the Canadian dollar strengthening?
The Canadian dollar rose for a third consecutive session to around 1.3930 against the American dollar, near a two-month high, because Canada is a major crude exporter and its currency is highly sensitive to the oil price. Canadian ten-year yields sit near 3.68%, and at least one analyst house expects the Bank of Canada to leave rates unchanged through 2026.
Sources: Investrade, Tickmill, FXStreet, Schwab
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