US Strike on Colombia Odds Fall to 15.5%

COLOMBIA · US SECURITY · PREDICTION MARKETS

Traders now put the chance of a US missile or drone strike on Colombian soil before the end of 2026 at about one in six. On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction exchange, that price fell 12.5 points in 24 hours, from roughly 28% to 15.5%.

It matters to US readers because Washington has framed its fight against drug cartels as a military campaign, and Colombia is the world’s largest cocaine producer. A strike there would be a major step for US forces, for US-listed Colombian companies such as Ecopetrol (the state oil company), and for the two countries’ relationship.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket lists one live contract on this question, with a single date still open. Earlier windows have already ended without a strike and settled at 0%.

• US strike on Colombia by 31 December: 15.5% on Polymarket, down 12.5 points in 24 hours and up 4 points in a week.
• Volume: about US$2.3 million traded since the market opened in January, but only about US$7,500 in the past 24 hours. This market is thinly traded, so a few orders can move the price.
• Related market: “Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?” trades at about 1.5%, with about US$157,000 traded in total.
• Kalshi: we found no comparable contract on Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission).

Daily prices over the past week show how restless this market is: about 17.5% on 4 November, 11% on 5 November, 19% on 7 November and 14.5% on 9 November, before a spike and today’s drop. Those are our end-of-day snapshots, so intraday moves were larger.

Read at 11 November, 5:28 p.m. ET. These are bets, not polls and not a forecast by this newsroom, and you can follow live prices on our Prediction Markets page.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Counts as a Strike

The rules matter, because they are narrower than the headlines. The contract pays “Yes” only if a US drone, missile or air strike physically hits Colombian ground, including rivers, lakes and ports.

Strikes on boats in territorial waters, artillery fire, ground raids and cyberattacks do not count.A strike claimed by President Donald Trump or the US government would qualify.A credible report is enough, so the market can resolve on reporting alone.

Why the Odds Moved

We found no single reported trigger in the past 48 hours. Searches of Colombian and US sources turned up no new US military action on Colombian soil, no new threat from Washington and no official statement that matches the move.

The price has been volatile for days, moving between about 11% and 28% in a week while few traders were active. With only about US$7,500 changing hands in 24 hours, a handful of orders can shift the price by several points without any news behind it.

The longer backdrop is one of closer cooperation. On 12 August, at a counter-cartel forum in Panama City, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Colombia had asked the US to join it in “authorizing joint military operations to destroy terrorists and terror networks.”

He added that Colombia would join the counter-cartel coalition, a US-led alliance of Latin American governments, as its 19th member. In early August, the US State Department said it would seek a US$1 billion security assistance package for President Abelardo de la Espriella, who took office that month.

Opposition senator Iván Cepeda, of the left-wing Historic Pact coalition, objected that the constitution lets only the Senate authorise foreign troops. Under the previous president, Gustavo Petro, relations were bitter.

In October 2025 the Pentagon, the US defence department, announced strikes on alleged drug boats in the Pacific that killed 14 people, and Petro condemned them. Those were attacks at sea, which this market would not count.

What It Means for US Readers

For investors, the market is a gauge of how far Washington’s drug war could move onto Colombian territory. Ecopetrol is listed in New York, and Colombian bonds and the peso react to security shocks, so US holders watch this risk.

For travellers and companies with staff in Colombia, a US strike would raise security questions, though nothing in our reporting points to one. The price of about 15.5% is a trader’s bet, not an official warning, and a falling price can reverse as quickly as it fell.

For US politics, the contract sits inside a wider argument about the limits of military force against cartels. Our earlier reports on US legal cases tied to Colombia, such as a witness who reportedly spoke to US authorities and a Mexican judge held in Colombia on US charges, show how closely the two justice systems now work together.

What It Means for Colombia

Joint operations are not the same as unilateral strikes. If Colombia’s government agrees to an operation, the politics change, though the contract still counts any US-launched strike that hits Colombian ground.

For readers in Colombia, the most relevant fact is that Congress is still arguing over who must approve foreign troops. See our Colombia coverage, our report on Ecopetrol’s US$85 million gas well and our Latin America odds page.

What Is Not Known

We do not know why the price fell: no single trigger was reported. We also do not know whether a strike is planned, how the Colombian government would respond, or who traded.

The market is thin and has one platform only, so its price is a weak signal. It could fall below 10% or rise above 25% again within days.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are prediction markets saying about a US strike on Colombia?

Polymarket prices a US strike on Colombian soil by 31 December at 15.5% as of 11 November, 5:28 p.m. ET. That is down about 12.5 points in 24 hours, from roughly 28%.

What counts as a strike in this market?

A US drone, missile or air strike that hits Colombian land, rivers, lakes or ports, announced or credibly reported by the date. Boat strikes at sea, artillery, ground raids and cyberattacks do not count.

Did something happen to cause the drop?

We found no single reported trigger in the past 48 hours. The price fell as it has swung before, and the market trades only about US$7,500 a day.

Is Colombia hostile to US military help now?

No. President Abelardo de la Espriella, who took office in August, asked for joint operations against drug networks, according to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on 12 August. Opposition senator Iván Cepeda says only the Senate can authorise foreign troops.

Does a market price mean a strike will happen?

No. Prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by the US government or this newsroom. The market has swung between about 11% and 28% in a week.

Sources: Polymarket contract rules and public market data for “US strike on Colombia by…?” (read 11 November 2026, 5:28 p.m. ET) · Kalshi public market data (read 11 November 2026) · Remarks by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Panama City, 12 August 2026 · US State Department announcement on security assistance to Colombia, August 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error