Upcoming Population Decline in Brazil: These States Are Leading the Trend

Beginning in 2027, Alagoas and Rio Grande do Sul will see population declines, as reported by the IBGE today.

This trend will spread to nine other states within two decades, with the entire country’s population decreasing from 2042.

This demographic shift is driven by aging populations, lower birth rates, and migration patterns.

In Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul, older age structures prompt earlier declines. In Alagoas, lower birth rates and emigration intensify the decrease.

Mato Grosso presents a contrast, expecting no decline through 2070, buoyed by migration inflows propelled by its thriving agribusiness sector.

These changes are critical for several reasons. They impact economic strategies, healthcare, social services, and urban planning.

A shrinking population could mean fewer workers and a higher proportion of retirees, reshaping economic and social policies.

The data serves as a crucial planning tool, helping policymakers address the implications of these shifts.

As Brazil adapts, understanding and preparing for these demographic changes will be vital in fostering a resilient future.

Background

The latest UN report projects Brazil’s population will peak at 219.28 million in 2042, with a global peak of 10.3 billion in sixty years.

Following this surge, numbers will slightly dip worldwide, settling at 10.2 billion by 2100. Globally, growth has slowed compared to past projections, showing a 6% decrease.

This means 700 million fewer people than expected. Factors include lower birth rates and quicker fertility declines in certain regions.

The growth trend in Brazil aligns with 47 other nations, including notable ones like Iran and Turkey.

From the 2022 IBGE Census, Brazil’s growth has cooled, now at a 0.52% annual increase — the smallest rise since 1872.

This slowdown shifts the demographic landscape significantly. By century’s end, one-third of Brazilians will be elderly, with seniors expected to make up 18% in just thirty years.

Upcoming Population Decline in Brazil: These States Are Leading the Trend