U.S. GDP Revised Up to 3.8% in Q2 as Inflation Cools; Durable Orders Surge, Jobless Claims Ease

The United States economy grew faster than previously estimated in the second quarter, with real GDP revised up to a 3.8% annualized pace (consensus 3.3%), while price pressures eased.

Core PCE inflation ran at 2.6% in Q2, down from 3.5% in Q1, and the GDP price index slowed to 2.1%. Final sales accelerated to 7.5% and real consumer spending rose 2.5%, signaling solid underlying demand alongside ongoing disinflation.

The growth upgrade was reinforced by a strong August capex signal. Headline durable-goods orders jumped 2.9% on the month, reversing July’s drop.

Excluding defense, orders rose 1.9%, and non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft—often used as a proxy for business equipment investment—advanced 0.6%, pointing to firmer private-sector momentum beyond transportation.

Labor data added to the soft-landing narrative. Initial jobless claims slipped to 218,000 (below the 233,000 consensus), with continuing claims at 1.926 million and the four-week average edging down to 237,500.

U.S. Data Point to Steady Growth With Cooling Inflation

The figures suggest the jobs market is loosening gradually without a sharp deterioration. Trade and inventories leaned constructive for growth. The advance goods deficit narrowed to $85.5 billion in August from $103.6 billion, hinting at a smaller drag from net exports.

Wholesale inventories fell 0.2%, while retail inventories excluding autos rose 0.3%, a mix consistent with selective restocking and improved inventory discipline.

Housing remained constrained but steady. Existing-home sales dipped 0.2% in August to a 4.00 million annualized pace, essentially flat on the month and just above expectations, reflecting persistent affordability headwinds despite pockets of relief elsewhere in the market.

Energy and policy rounded out a calmer backdrop. Natural gas storage rose 75 billion cubic feet, broadly seasonal. A slate of Federal Reserve speakers, including Austan Goolsbee and John Williams, offered tone but no new commitments ahead of afternoon Treasury auctions that will test investor appetite for duration.

Bottom line: A higher Q2 growth base with cooler inflation, firmer business orders, and lower claims keeps the U.S. on a growth-with-disinflation track.

For Brazil and the region, that combination supports demand for exports and may temper global rate volatility—so long as capex resilience and the trade improvement extend into autumn.

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