NIGERIA · POLITICS
Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) says President Bola Tinubu will cut inflation to 8% or lower and lift average peak power generation to 7,500 megawatts if voters re-elect him on Saturday 16 January 2027. The pledges, reported on Monday 9 November 2026 as part of the party’s campaign plan, would put numbers on a campaign that Tinubu formally launched in Kaduna, a northern city, on 24 October, when no targets were reported.
Headline inflation, the overall rise in consumer prices, is now 14.63%, so the target means cutting it by more than 40%. For readers in the United States, the plan matters because Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, and its prices and power supply shape the cost of doing business there.
Key Facts
- Who President Bola Tinubu and his ruling APC, which is seeking a second term.
- What Inflation of 8% or lower and average peak power generation of 7,500 megawatts.
- When Presidential election on Saturday 16 January 2027; plan reported on 9 November 2026.
- Now Headline inflation was 14.63% in September 2026, down from 15.39% in August.
- Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, two sites where users bet on outcomes, give Tinubu 67.5% and 70% (9 November, 2:37 p.m. ET).
What the Plan Promises
The plan, as reported, sets three headline goals: inflation of 8% or lower, average peak electricity generation of 7,500 megawatts (MW), and a bigger food supply. A megawatt is one million watts, the unit grid operators use to count output.
On food, the plan proposes more storage, halving post-harvest losses (crops that spoil before they reach a buyer) and more processing of farm produce inside Nigeria. Food inflation was 19.59% in September, well above the headline rate.
Tinubu launched his campaign in Kaduna on Saturday 24 October 2026 and said the fuel subsidy “is in our past”, but gave no inflation or power targets that day. The reported plan now puts numbers on those goals.
Where Prices and Power Stand Now
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s official statistics agency, put headline inflation at 14.63% in September 2026. That compares with 15.39% in August.
Core inflation, which strips out farm produce and energy, was 12.95%. Both measures sit well above the reported 8% goal.
On electricity, the plan as reported gives no baseline for today’s average generation. One report describes the goal as almost doubling peak output, but the size of the jump cannot be judged without the baseline.
For more on how prices have moved, see our explainer on the September inflation release. Our report on the Kaduna campaign launch covers the speech.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money on outcomes, priced a Tinubu win at 67.5% on 9 November at 2:37 p.m. ET, with US$154,767 traded. Peter Obi, the opposition figure who finished third in the 2023 race, stood at 22.0% there.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), priced Tinubu at 70%, with 14,626 contracts (each a bet on one outcome) traded across all candidates. Obi’s last trade there was 17%, on thinner trading.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Investors in Nigerian bonds, banks and consumer companies should read 8% as a campaign goal, not a forecast. A credible path would need the October inflation figure and a costed plan.
Residents and visitors will judge the plan by two daily tests, the price of food and the hours of grid power they get. The grid is the national network that carries electricity from power stations to homes and businesses.
What Is Not Known
The date by which the plan would reach 8% inflation or 7,500 MW is not stated in what has been reported. Neither the baseline for power generation nor the cost of the food measures has been published.
The full text of the plan was not available to confirm the wording, so the targets are reported, not confirmed from the document. We will update this page when the party publishes it.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Tinubu promise on inflation?
His party’s plan promises inflation of 8% or lower if he is re-elected. The latest official figure is 14.63% for September 2026.
When is Nigeria’s presidential election?
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the election authority, set the vote for Saturday 16 January 2027. Governorship elections follow on 6 February 2027.
What is the 7,500 MW power target?
It is a goal for average peak electricity generation across the national grid. The reported plan gives no starting figure, so the size of the increase is unclear.
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index for September 2026 (released 15 October 2026), nigerianstat.gov.ng; Independent National Electoral Commission, 2027 election timetable, inecnigeria.org; Polymarket and Kalshi market data read on 9 November 2026 (Polymarket, Kalshi); press reports of the APC campaign plan of 9 November 2026 (the document itself is not yet confirmed).
Related coverage: the rivalry between Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, the former vice president and our Nigeria hub.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error