Brazil Holds Interest Rate at 13.75%

Brazil’s central bank held its benchmark Selic interest rate at 13.75% on 4 November, ending a run of five quarter-point cuts as inflation expectations rose.

Why Brazil’s Central Bank Paused Its Rate Cuts

Brazil’s central bank held its benchmark Selic rate at 13.75% a year on Wednesday 4 November 2026, ending an easing cycle that began in March. The decision by Copom, the bank’s monetary policy committee, followed five consecutive cuts of 0.25 percentage point from 15%.

Copom said the external environment became more adverse because of prolonged armed conflicts in the Middle East, which push oil prices up. It also cited tighter monetary policy in advanced economies.

Market forecasts for inflation are 5.2% for 2026 and 4.8% for 2027, well above the 3% target. Copom gave no signal on when cuts might resume.

At home, Copom said recent data show a sharper slowdown in activity, while the job market stays resilient but is cooling at the margin. Inflation and the average of underlying measures accelerated and now sit above the upper limit of the official tolerance band around the 3% target.

The pause favours savers who earn a high yield on reais. It costs borrowers who had hoped for cheaper credit.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market where users bet real money, showed 75.0% for no change in Brazil’s rate at the December meeting and 15.0% for a quarter-point cut. About US$54,666 had been traded on that market as of 1:05 a.m. ET on 5 November (6:05 a.m. UTC).

For the January meeting the same platform showed 48.5% for no change and 20.3% for a quarter-point cut, with thinner trading. These prices are bets, not polls or forecasts by the central bank.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Why the US Tariff on Brazil Survived the Midterms

Democrats won control of Congress in the US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November 2026, but the 25% US tariff on most Brazilian goods remains. A few Senate races were still uncalled, and the new Congress is not seated until January 2027.

The duty rests on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which is a trade law rather than an emergency-powers law. The US Trade Representative (USTR), the White House trade office, announced it on 15 July 2026, and it took effect on 22 July.

Exclusions cover coffee, beef, orange juice, civil aircraft and pharmaceuticals, among other goods. The duty rests on trade powers that Congress delegated to the president long ago, so a change in who controls Congress does not remove it by itself.

On 30 September, Brazilian ministers met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Milwaukee and agreed to form a working group.

How the Banco Master Case Reached a Miami Court

A US bankruptcy court in Miami has ordered Martha Graeff, the former fiancée of banker Daniel Vorcaro, to testify under oath on 8 December 2026. The order became public on 3 November, and documents are due by 30 November.

The request came from EFB Regimes Especiais, the liquidator winding up Banco Master, a Brazilian bank that the central bank liquidated in November 2025. Vorcaro, the bank’s former owner, was arrested in November 2025 and again on 4 March 2026.

The filing uses Bankruptcy Rule 2004, which allows testimony and documents from people who may know about a debtor’s assets. It sits under Chapter 15 of the US bankruptcy code, which lets foreign liquidators seek help from US courts.

The request covers January 2018 to November 2026 and names Vorcaro and 18 other parties. It also seeks records from Graeff Holdings LLC, a Surfside, Florida company, including bank statements and papers on art and luxury purchases.

Graeff is not accused of wrongdoing.

What a São Paulo Court Ordered Meta to Do About News

A São Paulo state court has granted a preliminary injunction against Meta, the US technology group, barring the use of journalistic content without authorisation. The order covers outlets linked to three trade bodies: the newspaper publishers’ association ANJ, the broadcasters’ association Abert and the magazine publishers’ association ANER.

It also bars use of their reports, photos and videos to develop, train or test AI systems. The injunction also suspends Meta’s new business terms of service, which were due to take effect on 20 November 2026.

Non-compliance carries a fine of R$1 million (about US$180,000) a day, capped at R$100 million (about US$18 million), at about R$5.5 per US$. A preliminary injunction is an early, temporary order, so the underlying dispute has not yet been decided.

For the three associations, the ruling puts permission at the center of how Meta may use their members’ work. For Meta, the suspended terms of service are the nearest deadline, falling on 20 November.

What Links These Stories

Each story shows a Brazilian institution meeting a limit this week: the central bank on rates, trade negotiators on tariffs, and courts on banking and technology. Oil prices tied to Middle East conflicts, a US trade law and a Miami court all set the terms.

Holders of reais gain from the pause and news publishers gain from the Meta order, while borrowers, many exporters facing the 25% duty, and Meta lose out. The Lula government could gain if Democrats advance big-tech regulation, but no tariff relief is expected soon.

What It Means for US Readers

US importers of Brazilian goods still face the 25% duty on most items, though coffee, beef, orange juice, civil aircraft and pharmaceuticals are excluded. USTR can adjust the tariff and its exclusions under the same trade law.

Investors in Brazilian assets face a central bank that has stopped cutting while inflation forecasts sit above target. The Miami case shows US courts are part of the Banco Master asset search, and the Meta order shows Brazilian courts are setting terms for technology firms and AI.

What to Watch Next

Copom’s minutes are normally published the following Tuesday, which would be about 10 November, though that date is unconfirmed. President Lula travels abroad in mid-November, with a state visit to the Philippines on 13 November and the ASEAN summit on 14 and 15 November, returning on 16 November.

Meta’s new terms of service were due on 20 November, the date now suspended by the injunction. Graeff’s documents are due on 30 November, and testimony is set for 8 December in Miami.

What Is Not Known

Final US seat counts are not known, since some Senate races were uncalled, and one report of seven Democratic Senate gains could not be confirmed. It is not known whether Graeff has been served or will comply, and the case number, judge and order text were not seen.

Nor is it known when cuts might resume, or how Meta will respond to the injunction.

Sources

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff date. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Brazil cut interest rates on 4 November 2026?

No. Copom held the Selic at 13.75% a year, ending five quarter-point cuts that began in March. It cited higher oil prices, tighter policy abroad and inflation above the target band.

Does the Democratic midterm win remove the US tariff on Brazil?

No. The 25% tariff rests on Section 301 trade law and authority Congress already delegated. It rests on delegated trade powers, so a change in who controls Congress does not remove it by itself.

Is Martha Graeff accused of a crime?

No. A US court in Miami has asked Graeff to testify on 8 December and produce documents in the Banco Master asset search. Graeff is not accused of wrongdoing.