Strategie Grains revised EU canola production forecast downward to 18.3 million metric tons, an 8% decrease from last year.
This decline is mainly due to notable shrinkage in cultivation area.
This revision is slightly down from the 18.4 million tons projected last month and significantly lower than the 19.9 million tons recorded last year.
The consultancy foresees a production dip, notably in Romania and Poland, leading to increased EU imports, mainly from Ukraine and Australia.
Yet, it cautions that the import capacity from these countries might be limited due to their own reduced availabilities.
Meanwhile, the EU’s sunflower seed production outlook for 2024 is nearly steady at 10.7 million tons, up 9% from 2023.
Soybean production forecasts also remain constant at 3.1 million tons, showing an 8% increase over the previous year.
For the ongoing 2023–24 trade season, Strategie Grains points out that Red Sea navigational challenges could disrupt Australian canola imports, potentially shifting focus towards increased Canadian imports.
The forecast highlights global agricultural market interconnections. Production shifts and trade barriers in one region ripple, affecting supply chains globally.