SAUDI ARABIA · OIL
Key Facts
- The country Saudi Arabia, home of state oil giant Aramco and its 550,000-barrel Ras Tanura refinery.
- Prediction markets Polymarket: 0.4% chance Hormuz traffic normalises by 31 October (28 October, 4:24 p.m. ET).
- What happened Yemen’s Houthi movement said on 27 October it hit that Saudi refinery; Aramco has not confirmed damage.
- Oil prices Brent futures traded near US$115 a barrel on 28 October; WTI futures between US$101 and US$103.
- US gasoline Regular gasoline averaged US$4.27 a gallon in the week to 26 October, down from US$4.28.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday 28 October 2026 after Yemen’s Houthis claimed a missile hit on a Saudi refinery. Brent, the global benchmark, traded near US$115 a barrel, while WTI, the US benchmark, held above US$101.
That matters to US drivers, who paid an average US$4.27 a gallon for regular gasoline in the week to 26 October. Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, had not confirmed any damage at the Saudi refinery by Wednesday evening.
In Plain English
Brent is the global oil price benchmark, traded on the ICE futures exchange. WTI, short for West Texas Intermediate, is the main US benchmark, traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The Houthis are an Iran-aligned armed movement that controls much of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa. Saudi Aramco is the kingdom’s state oil company, and Ras Tanura is its large refinery and export port on the Gulf coast.
The EIA, the US Energy Information Administration, is the federal government’s energy statistics agency. Its weekly survey of gas stations is the standard measure of US pump prices.
What Happened
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said on Tuesday 27 October his forces fired a ballistic missile at the Ras Tanura refinery in the Eastern Province. He said it caused large fires but gave no detail, and Saudi authorities named no specific targets.
The Saudi-led military coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles fired at the capital, Riyadh. Its spokesman, Turki Al-Maliki, also said air defences shot down three missiles aimed at the Eastern Province and four drones aimed at the south.
Ras Tanura has a refining capacity of 550,000 barrels a day and hosts one of the kingdom’s main crude export terminals. A maritime security monitor reported a fire in the area that was reportedly contained, but the extent of damage is unclear.
The refinery was partly shut after a drone attack in March, and its current output has not been published. Aramco and the Saudi Energy Ministry had not confirmed a hit on the refinery by Wednesday evening.
Oil traded higher on Wednesday as traders weighed the claim, with Brent futures near US$115 a barrel and WTI futures between US$101 and US$103. The US Energy Information Administration’s daily spot price for WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, was US$103.37 on 27 October, down from US$105.25 the day before.
Why It Matters
The claim lands in a market already tight from the war involving Iran, the US and Israel, which began in March. That war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane through which a large share of Gulf oil leaves the region.
The Saudi refinery loads tankers in the Gulf, so any damage there would hit exports that must still pass Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s other main outlet is the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the end of its East-West pipeline.
The Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in July and have hit Aramco’s Jizan refinery on the Red Sea several times since. Egypt’s parliament voted on Monday 26 October to support Saudi defence, a step the Houthis called a declaration of war.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a defence pact in Makkah. Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials visited Tehran on Monday to ease tensions, and our explainer on the Houthis and the Red Sea covers the background.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a US prediction market for real-money bets, gives a 0.4% chance that Hormuz traffic normalises by 31 October (28 October, 4:24 p.m. ET). That contract has traded about US$3.6 million in total, and its price moved up only 0.1 points in 24 hours.
A separate Polymarket contract puts a US-Iran Hormuz agreement by 31 October at 4.3%, rising to 39% for a deal by 31 December. Those are bets, not polls, and they show traders expect the Gulf shipping squeeze to last.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Crude usually feeds into US pump prices within weeks, and the EIA says it is normally the largest part of the price. Regular gasoline averaged US$4.27 a gallon on 26 October, 1.5 cents below the week before and US$1.47 above early January.
The 2026 high so far was US$4.50 a gallon, in the week to 11 May. Crude near US$115 would add pressure before the 3 November midterm elections, and our report on US crude stocks tracks the weekly supply data.
Investors in oil stocks, airlines or funds that track crude face bigger swings while the Saudi refinery claim stays unconfirmed. Travellers to the Gulf should check US State Department advisories, since Riyadh residents received a text alert to take shelter on Tuesday.
Shipping is the second channel, because tankers leaving the Gulf must pass Hormuz and tankers leaving Yanbu use the Red Sea. The Houthis have declared a blockade there, and every new attack raises the risk for those cargoes.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether a missile hit the refinery itself or whether the fire came from debris or elsewhere on the site. Aramco has not said whether output at the Saudi refinery or loadings changed, and the Energy Ministry has not commented.
The EIA’s spot prices for 28 October are due in its next update, and official futures settlements may differ slightly from the levels quoted here. It is also unclear whether the Tehran visits will slow the fighting in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
More: Middle East news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil prices rise on 28 October?
Traders priced in the risk to Saudi supply after the Houthis said they hit the Saudi refinery at Ras Tanura. Brent futures traded near US$115 a barrel, with WTI futures above US$101.
Has Saudi Aramco confirmed damage at Ras Tanura?
Not by Wednesday evening, 28 October. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted missiles over the Eastern Province, but neither Aramco nor the Energy Ministry has described any damage.
Will US gasoline prices go up?
They can rise if crude stays high, since crude is the largest part of the pump price. The EIA’s latest weekly average was US$4.27 a gallon for regular gasoline on 26 October.
Sources: US Energy Information Administration, daily spot prices for WTI and Brent crude, 28 October 2026; US Energy Information Administration, weekly US regular retail gasoline prices, 26 October 2026; US Energy Information Administration, gasoline and diesel fuel prices, 28 October 2026; Saudi Aramco, company statements, 28 October 2026; ICE Futures, Brent crude futures, 28 October 2026; CME Group, WTI light sweet crude futures, 28 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error