Real estate speculation increases in the city of São Paulo, says Loft

Real estate speculation increased in the city of São Paulo. This is what the new EXAME-Loft Speculometer Index points out, which brings together EXAME and Loft, one of the main startups dedicated to the real estate market in the country.

Real estate speculation is measured by means of the average price difference between the amount requested by the owner and the amount actually agreed in the contract, that is, there is a negotiation opportunity for those who want to buy a property. Loft analyzes announced values and ITBI data (tax on real estate transactions) released by the City of São Paulo.

According to the survey, of the 57 neighborhoods analyzed, 49 had speculation above 10% (difference between the announced price and the closing value of the contract in the transactions). Rodger Campos, economist at Loft, explains that part of this effect is a reflection of the mix of properties that were transacted in the period: smaller and new properties.

“In times of government changes and possible changes that may affect relevant components of the real estate market, such as interest, income, sectoral incentives, among others, it is important to assess the trajectory and trend of the market. In this way, seller and buyer can reduce the likelihood of leaving money on the table and will be able to speed up the negotiation journey, at least from a price agreement point of view.”

The Bela Vista neighborhood, located in the central area of São Paulo, has registered an increase in real estate speculation, with the highest speculation indicator among the evaluated neighborhoods. The difference between the announced price and the closing value of the contract in transactions is 35.30%. In the region, the price per square meter is R$8,407.

Another highlight was the Jardim São Paulo neighborhood, located in the north of SP, and with a price of R$5,000 per square meter. In the region, the difference between the announced price and the closing value of the contract in transactions is 31.13%. According to Loft, the average typology transacted in the analyzed period was properties of 150 m² and aged 30 years.

NEIGHBORHOODS IN SÃO PAULO – DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ADVERTISED VALUE AND CONTRACT VALUE – ACCUMULATED IN 3 MONTHS – TREND

• Bela Vista 35.30% 15.15% High
• Jardim São Paulo 31.13% 14.94% High
• Campo Grande 31.11% -20.05% Low
• Vila Clementino 28.08% -2.06% Stability
• República 26.26% 8.64% Stability
• Jardim Paulistano 25.77% -1.96% Stability
• Vila Andrade 24.80% 2.48% Stability
• Jardim Paulista 24.77% 1.36% Stability
• Barra Funda 23.53% 0.75% Stability
• Paraíso 23.40% 7.18% Stability
• Moema Pássaros 22.89% 4.71% Stability
• Chácara Klabin 22.61% 1.32% Stability
• Bom Retiro 22.35% 4.90% Stability
• Vila Olímpia 22.11% 5.08% Stability
• Higienópolis 21.78% 2.09% Stability
• Lapa 21.74% 7.03% Stability
• Moema Índios 21.72% -0.39% Stability
• Morumbi 20.97% -1.19% Stability
• Liberdade 20.94% 1.15% Stability
• Vila Madalena 20.31% -2.73% Stability
• Alto de Pinheiros 19.97% 1.89% Stability
• Jaçanã 19.93% -19.35% Low
• Tremembé 19.70% -1.30% Stability
• Campos Elísios 19.55% 0.35% Stability
• Vila Mariana 19.39% -4.49% Stability
• Jardim América 18.79% -6.28% Stability
• Itaim Bibi 18.33% -1.33% Stability
• Santa Cecília 17.74% 0.91% Stability
• Brooklyn 17.73% 0.45% Stability
• Pinheiros 17.37% -2.93% Stability
• Sacomã 17.00% 3.59% Stability
• Perdizes 16.90% 0.69% Stability
• Campo Belo 16.49% 1.69% Stability
• Jardim Marajoara 15.03% 2.16% Stability
• Sapopemba 14.93% 4.17% Stability
• Jabaquara 14.07% 0.12% Stability
• Vila Prudente 14.00% 0.83% Stability
• Alto da Lapa 13.99% -1.85% Stability
• Vila Nova Conceição 13.88% 0.17% Stability
• Roman Village 13.48% -1.55% Stability
• Água Rasa 12.96% 3.06% Stability
• Saúde 12.91% 0.12% Stability
• Mooca 12.56% -3.50% Stability
• Tucuruvi 11.99% -2.58% Stability
• São Lucas 11.44% -1.23% Stability
• Sumaré 11.22% 0.09% Stability
• Santo Amaro 10.33% -6.30% Stability
• Bosque da Saúde 9.80% 3.18% Stability
• Vila Medeiros 9.50% -1.34% Stability
• Ipiranga 9.31% -2.56% Stability
• Aclimação 9.25% -1.14% Stability
• Freguesia do Ó 9.19% 0.07% Stability
• Vila Leopoldina 8.98% -5.19% Stability
• Limão 7.92% -9.60% Stability
• Cambuci 6.63% -3.66% Stability
• Cangaíba 3.21% 1.78% Stability
• Jardim Europa -3.63% -10.03% Low

NEIGHBORHOOD PRICE PER SQUARE METER IN R$

• Jardim Europa 19,171
• Vila Nova Conceição 15,178
• Brooklyn 11,789
• Jardim América 11,284
• Vila Olímpia 11,273
• Jardim Paulistano 11,246
• Itaim Bibi 11,161
• Pinheiros 10,851
• Moema Pássaros 10,341
• Jardim Paulista 10,262
• Moema Índios 10,139
• Sumaré 9,946
• Santo Amaro 9,908
• Vila Leopoldina 9,868
• Vila Madalena 9,731
• Vila Romana 9,225
• Vila Mariana 9,185
• Bosque da Saúde 9,185
• Alto de Pinheiros 9,138.6
• Paraíso 9,099
• Aclimação 9,065
• Alto da Lapa 8,938
• Barra Funda 8,898
• Lapa 8,771
• Higienópolis 8,764
• Campo Belo 8,632
• Chácara Klabin 8,600
• Bela Vista 8,407
• Vila Clementino 8,289
• Perdizes 8,204
• Ipiranga 8,161
• Santa Cecília 8,009
• Saúde 7,822
• Mooca 7,579
• Campo Grande 7,236
• Bom Retiro 6,869
• República 6,817
• Água Rasa 6,776
• Cambuci 6,632
• Freguesia do Ó 6,413
• Campos Elísios 6,358
• Tucuruvi 6,317
• Vila Prudente 6,316
• Liberdade 6,304
• Morumbi 6,283
• Limão 6,122
• Jabaquara 5,893
• Vila Medeiros 5,600
• Vila Andrade 5,287.96
• Jardim Marajoara 5,247
• Tremembé 5,184
• São Lucas 5.181
• Sacomã 5.018
• Jardim São Paulo 5,004
• Cangaíba 4,844
• Jaçanã 4,835
• Sapopemba 4,759

With information from Exame