Orsi’s Divided Report Card: Why Uruguay’s Calm Politics Now Look Less Certain

Key Points

1. Support for President Yamandú Orsi is stuck at 36% approval and 36% rejection after his first year.
2. Lower-income voters remain warmer to his government, while the middle and upper-income groups are drifting away.
3. Growing fatigue on security, growth and taxes could narrow his room to expand the state or push new experiments.

For many outsiders, Uruguay is the “boring good news story” of South America: small, predictable, with steady institutions and few shocks. The first year of President Yamandú Orsi shows why that image now needs an update.

A new national survey by Equipos Consultores finds the country split right down the middle on his performance. Thirty-six percent approve of his work, 36% disapprove, and roughly a quarter sit in the middle, neither satisfied nor angry.

Approval has not improved in recent months, but disapproval has crept up from 32%, a sign that patience is thinning rather than enthusiasm growing.

The map of opinion is striking. In Montevideo, in Canelones and in the interior, the picture looks almost identical. The real fracture line is not geography but class.

In middle, upper-middle and higher-income groups, Orsi’s balance is clearly negative, echoing frustration over taxes, regulation and a feeling that the productive economy is not a priority.

In lower and lower-middle income segments, his balance remains positive, thanks to expectations that welfare and subsidies will be protected.

Party identity sharpens that divide. Within his own camp, Orsi still enjoys strong backing. Among opposition voters, nearly two out of three now reject his performance, after a steady climb in disapproval during the last months of the year.

For expats, investors and foreign observers, the deeper story is about limits. Uruguay’s institutions remain solid and there is no sense of imminent crisis.

But a president who is personally liked yet politically stalled has less freedom to raise taxes, reverse reforms or expand state control.

The numbers suggest a cautious country signalling that it wants stability and competence more than big ideological experiments. That matters far beyond Montevideo’s skyline, including for regional trade partners and long-term investors.