Mexico’s Impressive Murder Decline And The Violence You Still Don’t See
Key Points
- Mexico’s government says murders are down by more than a third, but the country remains one of the world’s most violent.
- A few industrial and border states drive both the worst bloodshed and the biggest recent improvements.
- Falling homicide numbers help nearshoring and tourism, yet extortion, fear and missing people show how fragile the gains are.
Mexico’s new president tells a reassuring story. In her first 14 months, the average number of people murdered each day has fallen from almost 87 to about 55.
November 2025 was the least deadly November in ten years. On paper, the country is finally moving away from the worst years of the drug war.
For foreign readers, that sounds like a simple success. In reality, it is a correction after years in which the state often stepped back from direct confrontation with organized crime while promising “peace” through social programmes.
Homicides stopped exploding, but they stayed painfully high. The new trend is driven by a few key states. Guanajuato, the symbol of the cartel wars, has cut its daily killings by half.
Baja California, the State of Mexico, Sinaloa and Tabasco also report clear declines. At the same time, just seven states still account for roughly half of all murders.
Large parts of the country feel calmer, while others remain trapped between rival groups and local political machines. High-impact crimes show a similar pattern.
Official data report fewer feminicides, fewer kidnappings and fewer violent robberies than in 2018. That helps companies move goods, operate factories and insure their workers.
But extortion keeps rising, often run from prisons and enforced through fear rather than open gun battles. It is the quiet tax that gangs place on small businesses and truckers.
Surveys tell us that about six in ten Mexicans still feel unsafe in their city. Thousands remain missing. For expats, investors and tourists, the message is clear.
Mexico is becoming statistically less deadly, helped by more focused policing and pressure from business and local voters. But the real test is whether ordinary people can live, work and speak freely without asking permission from armed men.
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