Opinion: BRICS expansion – who stands to gain and who might lose?

(Opinion) The BRICS summit in Johannesburg explored expanding the alliance by potentially inviting six nations from January 2024: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia.

While Argentina’s membership is uncertain due to its upcoming elections, the criteria for selection centered on “geopolitical significance.”

Most invitees have strong ties to China, which is pushing for global governance reforms.

As BRICS diversify, Brazil and India might see diluted influence, even as they secure key concessions.

Despite perceptions, BRICS isn’t strictly “anti-Western”; its expansion indicates shifting global dynamics, with China appearing to be the main beneficiary.

Current members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

New entrants from January 2024

• Argentina
• Saudi Arabia
• Egypt
• United Arab Emirates
• Ethiopia
• Iran

Ethiopia’s inclusion came late, emphasizing African representation.

The bloc’s population coverage will rise from 41% to 46% globally, thanks to populous nations like India and China.

By 2024, the combined GDP is projected to reach US$32.9 trillion, or 29.7% of the global GDP.

Bloc’s Historical Progress

BRICS began in 2001 with Brazil, Russia, India, and China. South Africa was added in 2011.

There were no formal membership protocols until this summit despite a long list of interested nations.

While BRICS promotes regular meetings and cooperation, it operates informally without an official website.

China’s Strategy

China’s President, Xi Jinping, highlighted the need for BRICS’ expansion to increase its global influence and counterbalance groups like the G7 and G20. India also supported this vision.

Brazil’s Position

Brazil hoped for BRICS’ support in advocating for expanded permanent membership in the UN Security Council.

The summit declaration supported the inclusion of more nations in the Council for increased representation.

However, achieving this requires unanimous support from the current permanent members, which seems unlikely soon.

Democracy and Human Rights Concerns

Adding certain nations like Saudi Arabia and Iran raised questions about the bloc’s stance on democracy and human rights.

Brazil’s president, Lula, expressed that geopolitical influence was of primary importance.

Key Discussions

Local Currencies: There’s been an ongoing discussion since 2009 about a common reference currency for intra-BRICS transactions. This would decrease dependence on the US dollar, fostering regional trade.

UN Security Council Expansion: This topic featured prominently in the summit, primarily driven by Brazil’s interest.

Ukraine Conflict: The situation in Ukraine was discussed, with Lula pointing to the UN Security Council’s limitations.

In summary, while China emerges strengthened, Brazil seeks more influence within the bloc and globally.

The BRICS’ expansion underscores the group’s growing geopolitical relevance.

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