Oil Prices Teeter as Supply Fears Clash with Demand Woes

Oil markets kick off April 1, 2025, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) priced at $71.83 per barrel, traders reveal. This follows a rollercoaster day on March 31, when prices swung between $71.90 and $73.10 before settling at $72.45.

Overnight, cautious Asian markets drag WTI lower after China’s manufacturing PMI dips to 49.8, signaling weaker demand. Brent crude trades at $74.38 this morning, down from $74.62 at yesterday’s close, market makers confirm.

Europe’s cold weather lifts heating oil hopes, but Libya ramps up output by 150,000 barrels daily, easing supply worries. Meanwhile, Dubai crude holds steady at $73.05, reflecting thin overnight trading of 180,000 barrels amid softening Chinese diesel demand.

Urals crude lingers at $68.45, stable despite a $1.20 drop yesterday, analysts note. Sanctions squeeze Russian exports, yet India’s steady buying cushions the fall.

Across the globe, OPEC+ murmurs about unwinding 2.2 million barrels daily in cuts spark jitters, pushing prices down late Monday. The U.S. sees WTI falter as shale output rises by 50,000 barrels daily, traders report.

A stronger dollar, up 0.3%, adds pressure, though a 2.1-million-barrel inventory draw last week offers fleeting support. In Asia, Japan’s refineries boost runs by 80,000 barrels daily, but Shanghai’s 1.2% stock drop overshadows gains.

Volumes tell a mixed tale: WTI futures hit 1.2 million contracts on March 31, then ease to 450,000 overnight. Brent moves 980,000 contracts daytime, dropping to 320,000 after hours.

Oil Markets Face Uncertainty

ETF flows shift as the United States Oil Fund sheds $45 million, while the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas ETF gains $8 million. Technical signals hint at stagnation, experts observe. WTI tests its 50-day average of $71.50, with support at $70.80 and resistance at $73.10.

Brent hovers above $74.20, eyeing $75.20 as a ceiling. Dubai nears a key $73.00 pivot, poised for a breakout or retreat. Market voices weigh in: Vitol’s Jane Carter pegs WTI’s light volume at 450,000 contracts, citing OPEC+ uncertainty.

Gunvor’s Rahul Patel sees Brent capped at $75, blaming Libyan supply. Sinopec’s Li Mei calls China’s demand the wild card for Dubai’s $73.05 stability. This dance of supply and demand unfolds against a tense backdrop, analysts suggest.

OPEC+ supply hikes loom, China falters, and U.S. shale surges, yet cold snaps and Japan’s uptick offer faint hope. Traders now await Beijing’s next move and OPEC+ clarity to steer the week.

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