Oil Finds Its Footing After OPEC+ Blink, But The Trend Still Points Down

Brent and WTI opened the week a touch higher after OPEC+ chose the smallest-viable increase for November.

Around 06:20 UTC, Brent traded near $65.4 and WTI near $61.8, keeping the Brent–WTI spread close to $3–4. It’s a breather after a bruising week that pushed both benchmarks down roughly 7–8%.

The week’s arc was simple: fear, data, then relief. Prices slid early as traders braced for a larger OPEC+ hike and as seasonal refinery maintenance thinned demand.

Midweek, U.S. government figures showed a 1.8 million-barrel build in crude inventories (week ending Sept. 26), reinforcing the idea of softer runs and consumption.

A small bounce followed on talk of tougher enforcement of sanctions on Russian barrels. Over the weekend, OPEC+ added just about 137,000 barrels per day for November—less than many feared—nudging prices higher in Asian trading.

The story behind the story is seasonal and regional. Autumn maintenance reduces refinery buying worldwide, especially in Asia, where Saudi Arabia trimmed official selling prices to reflect weaker near-term demand.

In the U.S., commercial stocks sit near 416.5 million barrels; Cushing drew slightly, and exports remain firm as refiners head into turnarounds.

The rig count is broadly steady, suggesting no sudden supply shock from shale, while geopolitics around Russian flows keeps a floor under risk but hasn’t overwhelmed the demand lull.

Market tone is cautious rather than euphoric. Energy equities stabilized but didn’t surge, and the main WTI ETF saw only modest five-day inflows—more like selective dip-buying than a momentum turn.

Charts back that caution. On daily time frames, both Brent and WTI sit below declining 200-day averages with MACD negative and RSI in the mid-40s—bearish-neutral.

On 4-hour charts, momentum is curling up from the lower Bollinger band, allowing for a corrective bounce. Key zones: WTI support at $60.5–$60.9, resistance $62.3–$63.1; Brent support $63.5–$64.0, resistance $66.0–$66.9.

What’s next: fresh OPEC+ signals, Wednesday’s U.S. inventory data, any sanctions-related supply headlines, and whether strong U.S. exports persist. Until the daily trend turns, rallies are more likely to meet resistance than start a new bull run.

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