Two New Zealand Polls Tell Opposite Stories
New Zealand’s election race looks very different depending on which poll you read, 10 days before voters decide. A Reid Research poll, released on 28 October US time, puts the centre-left Labour party at 30.6% and the centre-right National party at 24.8% ahead of the New Zealand general election.
It matters to US readers because New Zealand is a US partner on Pacific trade and security, and its next government sets that course. A Verian poll with fieldwork ending a day earlier had National in front, so the picture is far from settled.
Key Facts
- Reid poll, 20 to 26 October: Labour 30.6%, National 24.8%, Greens 14.5%, ACT 10.1%, NZ First 9.9%, Opportunity 7.2%.
- Verian poll, 21 to 25 October: National 28.9%, Labour 27.3%, a reverse of the Reid result.
- Election day: Saturday, 7 November in New Zealand, which is Friday afternoon and night, 6 November, in the US.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives National 60.0% and Labour 37.5% to win the most seats (28 October, 5:26 p.m. ET).
Why Two Polls Tell Different Stories
Reid Research, a polling firm working for the public broadcaster RNZ, surveyed 1,000 eligible voters online from 20 to 26 October, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points. Verian, another polling firm, questioned 1,000 voters from 21 to 25 October.
Reid has Labour ahead by 5.8 points, while Verian has National ahead by 1.6. The honest reading is a close, volatile race rather than a settled Labour lead.
Could a Small Party Decide the Government?
Opportunity, a small centrist party, rose 1.7 points to 7.2% in the Reid poll, the biggest move in that poll. New Zealand elects Parliament by proportional voting, and a party needs 5% of the vote or one local seat to get in.
Reid’s projection gives Labour, the Greens and Opportunity 64 of 120 seats. The current National-led coalition of National, ACT (a free-market party) and New Zealand First (a populist party led by Winston Peters) would hold 54.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders are not following the Reid poll. On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, National has a 60.0% chance of winning the most seats and Labour 37.5% (US$120,263 traded, 28 October, 5:26 p.m. ET).
In the market for prime minister, Christopher Luxon, the National prime minister, stands at 58.5% and Chris Hipkins, the Labour leader, at 41.5%. A National, ACT and NZ First coalition is priced at 57.0% to form the next government.
These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
How to Follow Election Night
Advance voting, which lets people vote early, began on Monday, 26 October, and overseas voting opened on 21 October. Election day is Saturday, 7 November, New Zealand time.
Results are due progressively from 7 p.m. New Zealand time, which is 1 a.m. ET on Saturday, 7 November. The Electoral Commission, the official election body, publishes the official count.
What It Means for US Readers
A change of government in Wellington, the capital, would matter most for Pacific security cooperation and trade with the United States. Investors in New Zealand dollar assets will also watch whether a three-party left bloc or the current coalition can reach a majority.
What Is Not Known
Whether Reid’s Labour lead is a real late shift or a result of its method is unclear, since Verian shows a much closer race. Whether Opportunity stays above the 5% line is also open.
Te Pāti Māori, the Māori party, polls 1.9% with Reid and 0.1% with Verian, so its chances of winning local seats are unknown. The final seat count, including any overhang, cannot be known from polls.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is New Zealand’s 2026 general election?
Saturday, 7 November 2026, New Zealand time. For US readers that is Friday, 6 November, with the first results due from 7 p.m. New Zealand time, which is 1 a.m. ET on Saturday, 7 November.
Why do the two latest polls disagree?
Reid Research surveyed 1,000 voters online and put Labour ahead 30.6% to 24.8%. Verian questioned 1,000 voters and had National ahead 28.9% to 27.3%, so the race looks closer than one poll alone suggests.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error