Mexico’s Economy Outpaces Forecasts as Key Sectors Deliver Mixed Results

Mexico’s economy grew faster than market forecasts in the second quarter of 2025, according to preliminary data from the national statistics agency INEGI.

Seasonally adjusted figures show a 1.2% annual growth between the second quarter of 2024 and the same period in 2025, outperforming expert expectations that ranged closer to 0.8%. Quarter-on-quarter growth from April to June reached 0.7%.

Primary sectors, notably agriculture and livestock, posted the strongest yearly growth at 4.5%. Services and commerce followed with a 1.7% increase, showing strong demand in these areas.

Meanwhile, industry and manufacturing continued to struggle, recording a 0.2% annual decline. Industrial activity, especially in manufacturing, rebounded on a quarterly basis by 0.8%, which offset losses from the previous quarter.

This contributed to two consecutive quarters of economic expansion, easing fears of a recession and underscoring resilience amid pressures from U.S. trade policy and global demand.

Analysts note this positive result comes despite continued trade tensions with the United States and a complex global climate. Stable inflation and falling interest rates also supported recovery.

Analysts cited that exports remain a key driver, mainly for products not subject to new U.S. tariffs. This reflects Mexico’s critical trade relationship with the United States, which shapes the local economy’s direction and the outlook for many industries.

Market analysts, including those from Banamex and Goldman Sachs, now see higher odds for stronger annual growth in 2025, with forecasts up to 0.7%.

Nonetheless, most major economic institutions remain cautious, with GDP growth estimates for 2025 between 0.1% and 0.7%. Continued uncertainty about global demand and U.S. trade policy tempers more optimistic forecasts.

The latest data highlight that Mexico’s economic pulse remains steady but in a delicate balance. Service and export-led strengths help buffer ongoing industrial weaknesses and external risks.

Businesses and policymakers face persistent uncertainty, but the economy’s ability to beat expectations offers some reassurance to investors and trade partners seeking stability in a turbulent global environment.

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