Mexican Crude Up 69% but Oil Revenue Still Misses Budget
MEXICO · ENERGY
Key Facts
- —The number The Mexican export blend traded at US$90.94 a barrel on Friday 4 September, up 69% so far in 2026.
- —What it is not That 69% is the price of the blend, not the value of exports and not export revenue.
- —The budget line Hacienda built the 2026 budget on US$54.90 a barrel. Each extra dollar is worth roughly 11.6 billion pesos.
- —The catch Volumes are falling. July exports were about 510,000 barrels a day against 692,000 a year earlier.
- —The reversal For the first time in 36 years, Mexico spends more importing fuel than it earns exporting crude.
- —The fiscal weight Oil was 14.8% of federal revenue in 2025 and is projected at 13.8% for 2026.
The Mexican export blend is up 69% this year. Oil revenue is still coming in below budget, and that is the story.
Mexico’s export crude blend has risen 69% since the start of 2026, reaching US$90.94 a barrel on Friday 4 September. The rally has not delivered the fiscal windfall the number implies.
What the 69% Measures
The figure refers to the price of the mezcla mexicana de exportacion, measured from the start of 2026. It is a price move, not a revenue move.
The blend opened the year near US$51.64 on 7 January. It peaked at US$99.21 on 20 March, its highest in more than three and a half years.
It then fell back through the northern summer, to US$82.05 in June and US$75.12 in July, before the current rally took it to US$90.94.
Against the same date a year earlier, when it stood at US$61.30, the blend is about 48% higher. That is a different number from the 69% and the two should not be mixed.
Why the Price Is Rising
The driver is the war over oil tankers in the Gulf. United States forces struck three Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, Iran’s main export terminal, and Iran said it hit six vessels in reply.
Brent traded at about US$97 on Tuesday, with an intraday high near US$98.06, and West Texas Intermediate at about US$92.70. Both are up more than 11% since 26 August.
The market’s central fear is disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian loadings have already collapsed to about 260,000 barrels a day from roughly 1.7 million a year ago.
Sergio Cisternas of EBC Financial Group said the conflict threatens petroleum logistics and raises supply-risk concerns. Geronimo Ugarte of Valmex said the threat extends to production and refining infrastructure.
The Volume Problem
Higher prices only reach the treasury if there are barrels to sell. Mexico has fewer of them.
January exports fell 44.6% from a year earlier, to 294,400 barrels a day, and revenue fell 54.8% to US$493 million.
June broke a run of 14 consecutive monthly declines, rising 23.5% to 565,600 barrels a day, with revenue up 61.6% to US$1.392 billion.
July gave much of that back, at about 510,000 barrels a day against 692,000 in July 2025, a fall of roughly a quarter.
Production across the first seven months averaged 1.658 million barrels a day of liquids, some 142,000 short of the government’s 1.8 million target.
More Spent Importing Than Earned Exporting
Between January and May, Mexico exported 431,801 barrels a day of crude and imported 507,227 barrels a day of refined products.
By value the gap is wider. Fuel imports cost roughly US$1.6 billion a month, about US$8 billion over the five months, against US$1.09 billion of crude export revenue for the whole period.
That is import spending exceeding export earnings by about 32%, the first such crossover in 36 years, on Pemex data analysed by the think tank IMCO.
It is not driven by an import surge. Product imports actually fell 17% year on year. The crossover comes from collapsing crude exports.
Refinery utilisation stood at 47.5% in May, with 941,150 barrels a day processed.
The Fiscal Arithmetic
Oil revenue reached 1.222 trillion pesos in 2025, or 14.8% of total budget revenue, the third-lowest share on record. The 2026 projection is 1.2 trillion pesos, or 13.8%.
The share has been below 20% in ten of the last eleven years. Three forces explain it: falling production, the cut in the Pemex petroleum duty from 65% in 2019 to 30%, and net transfers to Pemex.
Hacienda assumed US$54.90 a barrel for 2026, and estimates that each additional dollar adds roughly 11.6 billion pesos of oil revenue.
Despite that sensitivity, oil revenue was the main reason total first-half revenue came in about 141 billion pesos below programme. Volume beat price.
What to Watch
The first marker is whether the Hormuz disruption eases. Iran said on Monday that a shipping arrangement with Oman was days away.
The second is production. The government’s 1.8 million barrel a day target is the number that decides whether price gains convert into revenue.
The third is the July trade balance, where the petroleum deficit widened to US$3.657 billion from US$3.396 billion in June.
The fourth is 2027. Hacienda expects oil revenue to fall below 1 trillion pesos for the first time.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly is up 69%?
The price of the Mexican export crude blend, measured from the start of 2026. It reached US$90.94 a barrel on 4 September. It is not export value or revenue.
Is Mexico earning more from oil?
Not as much as the price suggests. Export volumes have fallen sharply, and oil revenue came in roughly 141 billion pesos below programme in the first half.
Does Mexico import more fuel than it exports crude?
By value, yes. Between January and May fuel imports cost about US$1.6 billion a month against US$1.09 billion of crude export revenue for the period.
How much of the budget depends on oil?
Oil was 14.8% of federal revenue in 2025 and is projected at 13.8% in 2026, down from 22.4% in 2022.
Sources: Pemex, SHCP, INEGI, IMCO, El Financiero, Infobae, Tribuna de Mexico.
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