Lula Agrees to Open Records If Flávio Does
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 8:42 p.m. ET · Source: Lula campaign press conference, 21 October
Key Facts
- What happened On Wednesday 21 October, Lula’s campaign said he accepts the terms Flávio Bolsonaro set for opening both men’s financial and phone records.
- The deadline The campaign says it will file its answer with the electoral court at 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday 22 October (11:00 Brasília).
- The catch Lula wants Flávio to open everything he asked of Lula, and to add a company his list left out.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (21 October, 8:40 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 21 October, 9:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Whether Flávio meets the deadline, and what he will agree to open, is not known.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, will accept the conditions set by his runoff rival Flávio Bolsonaro for opening bank and phone records, his campaign said on Wednesday 21 October. Camilo Santana, a senator and Lula’s campaign coordinator, announced it to reporters in the evening in Brasília, four days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October.
The dispute matters to US readers because it keeps corruption allegations at the centre of a race that moves Brazilian assets and Washington’s trade ties. Flávio Bolsonaro is a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
What the Lula Campaign Said
Santana said the president does not oppose “absolutamente nada” that Flávio is asking for, as long as Flávio also opens everything requested of him, O Tempo reported. The campaign will file its formal answer with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) at 11:00 Brasília time on Thursday, which is 10:00 a.m. ET.
Santana also gave Flávio until that hour to accept the terms, Jornal de Brasília reported. Both sides are using the TSE, the court that runs Brazil’s elections, as the venue for the exchange.
What Flávio Bolsonaro Asked For
Flávio’s conditions include opening bank records tied to Instituto Lula, the former president’s institute, and those of Marco Aurélio Santana Ribeiro, O Tempo reported. Lula’s campaign says it accepts them, Exame reported.
Ribeiro, known as Marcola, was Lula’s chief of staff and left the campaign coordination in August. The Federal Police are investigating a R$249,000 (about US$45,000) transfer to him from lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger, a friend of Lula’s son Fábio Luís, known as Lulinha; Marcola calls it a repaid personal loan.
Lula’s Counter-Demand on a Company
Santana objected that Flávio’s list left out Alcazar Holdings, a company linked to lawyer Willer Tomaz, Jornal de Brasília reported. Exame said Lula’s original list named the company and Flávio’s answer omitted it.
On 19 October Lula said he would send the TSE a letter opening his bank and phone records and those of his five children, and he challenged Flávio to do the same.
What It Means for You
For investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed Brazilian shares, headline risk stays high until the vote. The Brazil election polls page lists each survey so you can see whether the story moves voters.
Prediction markets, which are online bets that act as live probabilities, currently favour Flávio. See Brazil election odds for the latest prices, which are bets and not polls.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.1% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (21 October, 8:40 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$191 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.3% · Lula 21.5% (US$191 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 21 October, 9:20 pm ET (02:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Flávio will meet the 10:00 a.m. ET deadline or agree to Lula’s added demand on Alcazar Holdings. Reports differ on the full list of items Flávio asked Lula to open, so we name only those on which outlets agree.
Nothing published so far shows what the records would contain. Opening records is a request, and any court order would be a separate step.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Lula’s campaign say about opening records?
Camilo Santana said on 21 October that Lula accepts the conditions Flávio Bolsonaro set, if Flávio also opens everything requested of him. The campaign will answer at the electoral court at 10:00 a.m. ET on 22 October.
What is the deadline in the records dispute?
Thursday 22 October at 11:00 Brasília time, which is 10:00 a.m. ET. Santana gave Flávio until then to accept the terms.
Who is Marcola?
Marco Aurélio Santana Ribeiro, known as Marcola, was Lula’s chief of staff and left the campaign coordination in August. The Federal Police are investigating a R$249,000 (about US$45,000) transfer to him from a lobbyist, which he calls a repaid personal loan.
Who is Camilo Santana?
Camilo Santana is a senator and former education minister who coordinates Lula’s campaign. He spoke to reporters on the evening of 21 October.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: O Tempo, 21 October 2026; Jornal de Brasília, 21 October 2026; Exame, 21 October 2026; Veja, 21 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief