JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Undervalued Against Gold as Volatility Hits Record Low

JPMorgan stated in a research note on August 28 that Bitcoin trades below its fair value compared to gold. The bank based its analysis on the sharp fall in Bitcoin’s volatility, which dropped from nearly 60 percent at the beginning of 2025 to around 30 percent now.

Analysts highlighted that Bitcoin is only twice as volatile as gold, the narrowest ratio on record. JPMorgan’s model adjusts Bitcoin’s price to reflect this volatility relationship with gold.

According to the bank, Bitcoin should trade near 126,000 dollars per coin, about 13 percent higher than the current level near 113,000 dollars. The bank argued that the shrinking volatility gap strengthens the case for Bitcoin as a store of value similar to gold.

Corporate adoption played a central role in the analysis. Companies now hold more than six percent of all Bitcoin in their treasuries. These holdings reduce supply available in the market and lower price swings.

The report marked a reversal compared to late 2024. At that time Bitcoin traded 36,000 dollars above what the bank considered its fair value relative to gold.

Now, with Bitcoin below that level, JPMorgan sees potential upside in the current cycle. The note projected that Bitcoin could reach the volatility-adjusted fair value of 126,000 dollars by the end of 2025, which would mark a new all-time high.

The reasoning matters for investors because large institutions allocate capital based on volatility. Lower volatility allows larger positions without breaching risk controls.

If Bitcoin maintains stability, it becomes easier for portfolio managers to compare it with traditional stores of value. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests Bitcoin is maturing into an asset that behaves more like gold, even if its future remains uncertain.