Jamaica · Economy
Published Wednesday 11 November 2026 · Source: International Monetary Fund, preliminary findings of its 2026 Article IV mission to Jamaica (27 October to 4 November 2026)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global lender that advises and finances governments, says Jamaica’s economy is recovering after Hurricane Melissa. It projects growth of 1.3% in the fiscal year 2026/27, after a 1.2% contraction in 2025/26.
The IMF expects output to return to pre-hurricane levels by mid-2027. W. Raphael Lam, who led the IMF team, released the preliminary findings on Wednesday 11 November 2026 after a visit to Kingston from 27 October to 4 November.
The visit was part of the IMF’s 2026 Article IV consultation, the IMF’s regular health check of a member country’s economy. Jamaica’s fiscal year runs from April to March, so 2026/27 ends in March 2027.
Key Facts
- Growth. The IMF projects 1.3% growth in fiscal 2026/27, after a 1.2% contraction in 2025/26.
- Recovery. Output should regain pre-hurricane levels by mid-2027, but risks to growth are tilted to the downside.
- Prices. Inflation is above the 4% to 6% target of the Bank of Jamaica, the central bank; the IMF expects a return by mid-2027.
- Debt. Public debt was about 66% of GDP, or economic output, in 2025/26; the government expects about 60% by 2031/32.
What the IMF Found
The IMF said the priority now is faster reconstruction while keeping the economy stable and deepening reforms. It warned that delays in rebuilding and in restoring tourism capacity would weaken the recovery.
It called the loosening of fiscal policy after the storm the right decision. Once the recovery gains pace, it said, the government should close long-standing infrastructure gaps, strengthen resilience to disasters and then rebuild financial buffers.
Debt, Prices and Interest Rates
Public debt stood at about 66% of gross domestic product (GDP, the value of everything the economy produces) in 2025/26. The government expects about 60% by 2031/32, and the IMF suggested a faster path, which would depend on raising revenue and holding back current spending.
Inflation, driven by higher energy and food prices, is above the Bank of Jamaica’s target range of 4% to 6%. The IMF expects it back in that range by mid-2027 and sees upside risks.
The Bank of Jamaica raised its policy rate in September, and the IMF called the increase appropriate. It said policy should stay “appropriately tight”, which means keeping borrowing costs high enough to bring price rises down.
Rebuilding Body Gets Qualified Backing
The IMF gave a welcome but qualified endorsement to the new National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority (NaRRA), the body that runs the rebuilding. It urged better procurement, contract management, public investment planning and coordination between agencies.
In January 2026 the IMF’s board approved an emergency disbursement of about US$415 million (SDR 306.32 million, the IMF’s own unit of account) for Jamaica under its Rapid Financing Instrument, a fast emergency-loan facility. The IMF’s Deputy Managing Director then said Hurricane Melissa had caused “unprecedented destruction”.
In Plain English
- IMF: the International Monetary Fund, which lends to governments and reviews their economies
- Article IV: the Fund’s regular review of a member country’s policies and economy
- Fiscal year: the government’s budget year; in Jamaica it runs from April to March
- Tight policy: keeping interest rates high enough to slow price rises
What It Means for You
For travellers, the IMF’s warning that delays in restoring tourism capacity would weaken the recovery makes hotel and attraction reopenings the signal to watch. Our report on tourism jobs after Melissa tracks that side of the story.
For investors and lenders, the IMF said a faster debt path could be considered, which would mean cutting debt sooner than the government plans. Who holds the economic levers is in our guide to Jamaica’s economic key players.
The earlier hit is described in our report on the economy’s contraction after Melissa. Progress on rebuilding is covered in our report on rebuilt schools.
What Is Not Known
The preliminary statement gives fiscal-year figures, not calendar-year growth. A full IMF report has not been published, as far as we could confirm.
No dated checkpoint has been announced; mid-2027 is the IMF’s own marker for the return of output and for inflation inside the target range. In our view, whether reconstruction spending speeds up is the main open question.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the IMF expect for Jamaica’s economy?
It projects growth of 1.3% in the fiscal year 2026/27, after a 1.2% contraction in 2025/26. Output should return to pre-hurricane levels by mid-2027.
How high is Jamaica’s public debt?
About 66% of GDP in 2025/26, the IMF said. The government expects about 60% by 2031/32.
Is inflation in Jamaica under control?
Not yet. Inflation is above the Bank of Jamaica’s 4% to 6% target, and the IMF expects it to return to that range by mid-2027.
What did the IMF say about the rebuilding authority?
It gave the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority a welcome but qualified endorsement. It asked for better procurement, contract management and coordination between agencies.
Sources: International Monetary Fund, preliminary findings of the 2026 Article IV mission to Jamaica, 11 November 2026; IMF, press release 26/008 on the US$415 million disbursement, 16 January 2026.
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