Iron Ore Prices Steady as Market Awaits Clear Direction Amid Persistent Weakness

Iron ore futures for 62% Fe CFR China traded at $94.65 per ton on June 27, 2025, according to official Singapore Exchange and TradingView data.

The price moved little over the last 24 hours, fluctuating in a narrow band between $94.50 and $94.65, reflecting a cautious and indecisive market.

Volatility and trading volumes remained subdued as participants weighed ongoing weak demand against persistent oversupply. Fundamentals continue to pressure the market.

Chinese steel demand remains soft, with official data showing only modest output growth and high port inventories. The latest figures indicate 146.85 million tons of iron ore at Chinese ports, up 28% year-on-year.

This signals a persistent oversupply, as steel mills focus on cost control and favor lower-grade feedstocks. Supply from Australia and Brazil remains steady, with no new disruptions reported.

The recent downgrade of Pilbara Blend fines quality by Rio Tinto has not offset the broader demand weakness. New supply from Guinea’s Simandou mine adds further pressure.

Macroeconomic factors reinforce this cautious tone. China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index continues to signal contraction, while fixed asset investment growth has slowed.

Heavy industry investment, which previously supported steel demand, now shows signs of plateauing. The World Steel Association projects global steel demand to rise by 1.2% in 2025, but expects a 1% decline in China, driven by ongoing struggles in the real estate sector.

Technical analysis of the daily chart confirms the market’s indecision. The price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, which cluster between $95.61 and $101.63.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 37.82, rising from oversold territory but still below the neutral 50 mark.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive for the first time in months, suggesting a possible shift in momentum, but the price remains below key resistance levels.

Bollinger Bands show the price hugging the lower band, indicating ongoing downward pressure but also the potential for a technical bounce. The four-hour chart offers a slightly more optimistic picture.

The RSI has climbed to 55.50, above the neutral line, and the MACD histogram has turned green, confirming a short-term shift in momentum.

For the first time in weeks, the price did not make a lower low under pressure, instead rebounding and now sitting just below the 50-period moving average.

This suggests that market psychology has shifted, with traders less eager to sell into weakness and more willing to probe resistance. Despite these technical signals, the market lacks a clear catalyst.

No major ETF inflows or outflows have been reported, and open interest remains steady. Immediate support stands at $94.00, with resistance at $95.80 and $97.35.

Unless Chinese demand improves or supply tightens, iron ore prices may struggle to break above resistance. The market continues to search for direction as oversupply and lackluster demand dominate the landscape.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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