Iron Ore Prices Slip as Technical and Fundamental Pressures Mount

Official Singapore Exchange data and TradingView charts show iron ore 62% Fe CFR China futures opened June 9 at $95.40 per ton, extending last week’s losses. The market failed to break above resistance on June 5 and has since moved steadily lower.

Both the four-hour and daily charts confirm a persistent downtrend, with prices trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages. These averages now act as resistance, capping any attempts at recovery.

The Relative Strength Index on both timeframes remains below the midpoint, signaling continued negative momentum. The MACD indicator stays negative, with no sign of bullish divergence.

Bollinger Bands have widened, and price action repeatedly touches or breaches the lower band, underscoring strong selling pressure. The $94.75 level now stands as immediate support, with resistance at $97.35 and $98.97.

Volume analysis reveals no significant spikes, suggesting steady, controlled selling rather than panic. The technical landscape points to a high probability of further downside, especially if prices break below $94.75.

Fundamental data reinforce the technical weakness. China’s iron ore imports fell 4.9% in May to 98.13 million tons, reflecting a strategic shift by steel mills.

Mills now favor portside inventories and domestic sources over seaborne cargoes, anticipating seasonally slower steel demand during the summer. Port inventories remain elevated, up 28% year-on-year at 146.85 million tons.

Mills continue to prioritize cost control, opting for lower-grade ore and limiting restocking of high-grade material. Supply from major exporters like Australia and Brazil remains robust, with no new disruptions reported.

Macroeconomic signals from China remain subdued. The latest Purchasing Managers Index indicates ongoing contraction in manufacturing. Fixed asset investment and heavy industry growth have slowed, further dampening steel demand.

No major inflows or outflows have been reported in iron ore or steel-related ETFs, and open interest remains steady, reflecting a market searching for direction.

Recent trades confirm the cautious tone. Pilbara Blend fines traded at $93–96 per ton in the seaborne market, with a slight premium for June-loaded cargoes. Mills continue to show limited appetite for high-grade imports, focusing instead on margin preservation.

The failed breakout above $97.35 last week and the inability to reclaim key moving averages have left the market vulnerable. Unless Chinese demand improves or supply tightens unexpectedly, prices may struggle to find support.

The technical and fundamental backdrop now favors sellers, and volatility is likely to persist as the market tests lower levels.

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