Iran Ceasefire Odds Fall 20 Points to 78%
IRAN · UNITED STATES · PREDICTION MARKETS
Key Facts
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based betting exchange, prices a ceasefire through 2 November at 78%, down 20 points in 24 hours (3 November, 4:30 a.m. ET).
- Trigger Senior US officials confirmed limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, on 2 November.
- Next US midterm elections are today; Iran says it can carry out its seven-day plan in two days.
- Volume About US$38 million traded in all and US$5.2 million in 24 hours.
Traders have cut the odds that the US-Iran ceasefire survived 2 November, after US strikes on an Iranian island that Washington calls defensive.
Polymarket traders cut the chance that the US-Iran ceasefire holds through 2 November to 78%, down about 20 points in 24 hours. Our report of 29 October covered a related ceasefire contract.
It matters to US readers because the ceasefire decides the oil price, the safety of US warships in the Strait of Hormuz and the next move of the White House after today’s midterm elections.
In plain English
Polymarket is a crypto-based exchange where people bet real money on events, and the price is the crowd’s implied chance.
Qeshm Island is an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, the sea lane that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil trade. It lies just off Iran’s southern coast.
The ceasefire contract pays “Yes” unless the US carries out a qualifying air or missile strike on Iranian territory by the stated date.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket lists the question “US-Iran ceasefire continues through…?” with one contract per date. A contract pays “No” if the United States carries out a qualifying air or missile strike on Iranian territory by that date.
- Through 2 November: 78%, down about 20 points in 24 hours; roughly US$1.2 million traded in 24 hours.
- Through 31 October: 89%, down about 10 points in 24 hours and 4.5 in a week; roughly US$1.3 million traded in 24 hours.
- Through 3, 5, 6 and 7 November: between 0.6% and 0.8% each.
Contracts for 4 and 8 November have already resolved to “No”, and those for 15, 22 and 30 November and 31 December show as closed at “No”. In total about US$38 million has traded on the question, including US$5.2 million in the past 24 hours, so this is not a thin market.
Polymarket lists the 31 October and 2 November contracts as disputed, which means the proposed outcome is being challenged. Our reading is that the prices for 3 to 7 November mostly reflect how the contracts settle, not a fresh forecast, and that part of the move may be a dispute over what counts as a qualifying strike.
Kalshi, an exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), did not list a comparable contract when we looked. These prices are bets, not polls and not a forecast by this newsroom.
Live prices are on our Prediction Markets page.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Moved
On 2 November, senior US officials confirmed that American forces had carried out limited strikes on Qeshm Island. Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported explosions, and no Iranian retaliation had been reported by early Tuesday.
The island hosts a naval base, an underground missile facility and a desalination plant, according to US officials. They described the strikes as defensive, meant to weaken Iran’s ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The same officials said such limited strikes had been carried out in secret over several weeks. That clashes with President Donald Trump, who told reporters on Monday: “we haven’t been doing any fighting for months.”
Trump also said on social media that falling oil prices showed markets did not expect a renewed war. Oil prices fell on 2 November as hopes of a deal grew.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could now be carried out in two days. Iran’s conditions include an end to the war on all fronts, the release of frozen Iranian assets, the lifting of oil sanctions and an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports.
Vice President JD Vance said: “We’ve certainly made some progress.” Qatar and Pakistan are mediating between the two sides.
Our reading, not a claim from any source: traders appear to have priced in that a strike has already happened, while the political talk about peace has not changed that fact.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 80,543 | +0.67% | -29.41% | 80,007 | 80,550 | 79,380 | 21,816,416,256 |
| ETH | 2,348 | +1.18% | -43.00% | 2,320 | 2,349 | 2,295 | 8,316,267,520 |
| SOL | 100.98 | +0.22% | -49.19% | 100.75 | 101.04 | 99.17 | 2,110,777,984 |
| XRP | 1.32 | +1.04% | -49.89% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1,574,615,552 |
| BNB | 750.98 | +1.29% | -34.10% | 741.42 | 751.10 | 733.56 | 1,470,316,160 |
| ADA | 0.21 | -0.30% | -69.21% | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 190,120,672 |
| DOGE | 0.08 | +0.78% | -60.98% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 441,746,112 |
| AVAX | 8.84 | -1.36% | -56.54% | 8.96 | 8.96 | 8.67 | 289,961,824 |
| LINK | 11.47 | +0.80% | -37.04% | 11.38 | 11.47 | 11.23 | 248,509,440 |
| DOT | 0.99 | -2.05% | -68.52% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 109,918,912 |
| LTC | 56.59 | -0.13% | -43.06% | 56.66 | 56.87 | 55.70 | 169,852,160 |
| BCH | 290.36 | +3.57% | -47.81% | 280.36 | 292.52 | 277.47 | 195,939,216 |
| TRX | 0.33 | -0.51% | +9.69% | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 371,519,040 |
| XLM | 0.17 | +0.21% | -47.60% | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 107,134,680 |
| HBAR | 0.08 | -1.56% | -58.82% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 55,674,584 |
| NEAR | 4.62 | +2.60% | +97.50% | 4.50 | 4.64 | 4.39 | 630,712,192 |
| ATOM | 1.61 | -1.48% | -49.28% | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 30,012,314 |
| AAVE | 132.37 | -2.36% | -43.78% | 135.57 | 135.87 | 129.56 | 246,790,448 |
What It Means for US Readers
The first link is oil. Our oil markets report of 2 November tracks that move, and a confirmed strike on Iranian soil would test any calm.
The second is politics. Trump said “No” when asked whether he would strike Iran after the 3 November vote, yet his officials still describe ongoing limited strikes.
For investors, the 78% price is partly a bet on how a disputed contract is settled, not a forecast of war. It is a signal worth watching beside the oil price.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
Our analysis, not a claim from the sources: the main channel is the oil price. About one-fifth of the world’s oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so a lasting break in the ceasefire would lift fuel costs for importers in Africa and Latin America.
Oil exporters such as Brazil and Guyana would gain on price but face the same risk of a sudden swing. See our report on Hormuz deal odds for the earlier talks.
Regional prediction markets are on our Latin America odds page and Africa odds page. Our report of 19 October covers the earlier 17-point drop.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how Polymarket will settle the disputed contracts, or whether a strike that was not announced at the time counts. It is not known whether the US will strike again after the election.
Trump said “No” when asked, yet he has also left the option open. It is also not known whether Iran will answer the Qeshm strikes.
So far, no significant retaliation has been reported.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are prediction markets saying about the US-Iran ceasefire?
Polymarket prices a ceasefire holding through 2 November at 78% as of 3 November, 4:30 a.m. ET, down about 20 points in 24 hours. That contract is listed as disputed.
Why did the odds fall?
Senior US officials confirmed limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, on 2 November. Traders have not said what moved them, so the link is our reading.
What counts as a qualifying strike on Polymarket?
An air or missile strike launched by the US that hits Iranian territory. Ground incursions, naval gunfire and intercepted munitions do not count.
Is the US-Iran ceasefire over?
Officials have not said so. Trump says there has been no fighting for months, while US officials describe limited defensive strikes over several weeks.
Does a market price mean a strike will happen?
No. Prediction market prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by this newsroom or any government, and they can reverse as news arrives.
Sources: Statements by senior US officials, President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, the Iranian Foreign Ministry and Iran’s state news agency IRNA (all 2 November 2026); US Energy Information Administration data on Hormuz oil flows; Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 3 November 2026, 4:30 a.m. ET).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief