Ibovespa Sets New Record as Commodities and Wall Street Drive Gains

The B3’s Ibovespa index closed July 3, 2025, at 140,927.86 points, marking a new all-time high. Official data from the B3 exchange and the trading session confirm this close, with the index reaching an intraday peak of 141,303.55 points.

The market advanced 1.35% over the previous day, driven by strong external factors and robust trading volumes. Wall Street’s record highs and a surge in metal commodity prices, especially iron ore, provided the main catalysts.

The U.S. labor market report showed 147,000 jobs added in June, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, which eased concerns about a sharp economic slowdown in the United States.

These developments reduced the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supported global risk appetite. Chinese iron ore futures rose 2.45% during the session, directly benefiting Brazilian exporters.

Vale, the largest miner on the B3, saw heavy trading as a result. However, the stock gave up early gains by the close, reflecting some profit-taking as the commodity rally faded late in the day.

Petrobras shares gained strength in the final hour, despite mixed oil prices, as investors rotated into large-cap names. Domestic political tensions remained in focus.

Investors watched the ongoing dispute between Brazil’s Executive and Legislative branches over a Supreme Court case involving IOF tax rates. This uncertainty did not prevent the market from advancing, but it added a layer of caution to trading.

Klabin led the winners, rising on expectations of strong second-quarter results and news of a R$700 million investment related to the Plateau Project.

Embraer also outperformed after delivering 61 aircraft in the second quarter, which analysts described as a positive sign for its production targets. Other notable gainers included Engie Brasil and Ambev, which benefited from sector rotation and defensive positioning.

On the downside, Raízen, BRF, MRV, and Santos Brasil posted losses, reflecting sector-specific headwinds and volatility in real estate and logistics. Vale, despite early momentum, ended flat to slightly down as iron ore prices retreated.

Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the Ibovespa in a clear uptrend. The index traded above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, confirming bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed at 63.58, indicating strong momentum but not yet overbought. The MACD histogram turned positive, supporting the case for continued strength.

Bollinger Bands expanded, reflecting increased volatility and validating the breakout to new highs. Volume remained robust, confirming the legitimacy of the move.

Fundamentals remain solid, with the index’s price-to-earnings ratio at 9.2x and a market capitalization of R$4.4 trillion. The materials, telecom, and consumer discretionary sectors led gains, while energy and consumer staples lagged.

ETF flows into Brazilian equities stayed positive, though the pace slowed compared to earlier in the year. The Ibovespa’s record close reflects a combination of favorable global conditions, resilient domestic fundamentals, and technical confirmation.

However, the market approaches overbought territory, and traders remain alert to shifts in external sentiment and local political developments.

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