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since 2009
Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Brazil Economy

Brazil May Buy Up to US$18bn of Unpaid Debt

By · October 21, 2026 · 5 min read
Aerial view of the Esplanada dos Ministérios in Brasília with the National Congress building at the far end
The Esplanada dos Ministérios in Brasília, seat of Brazil's federal government. File photo, 2016. (Photo: Fabio Pozzebom/Agência Brasil, CC BY 3.0 BR, via Wikimedia Commons)
Brazil Economy · Household Debt

Published Wednesday, 21 October, 6:15 p.m. ET · Source: Finance Minister Dario Durigan

Key Facts

—The number. Up to R$90 billion (US$17.9 billion) of overdue debts could be bought.

—Cost cap. At a 90% discount, the state would pay at most R$9 billion (US$1.8 billion).

Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
33 national polls from 19 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.

—Timing. Banks are asked on Thursday 22 October what they would sell; the auction is planned for November or December.

—Who is covered. People and one-person businesses owing debts under R$10,000 (US$1,990) each.

—Still unknown. How much debt banks will offer, at what discount, and how many people benefit.

—Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).

Runoff · Sunday, 25 October

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Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)

Prediction markets · who wins the runoff

Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.

Polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · Lula 19.5% (US$191 million traded)

Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)

Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 21%

As of 21 October, 6:20 pm ET (23:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.

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Brazil’s government may buy up to R$90 billion (about US$17.9 billion) of overdue personal debts from banks and funds, Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on Wednesday 21 October. Because the discount must be at least 90%, the state would pay at most R$9 billion (about US$1.8 billion), according to Folha de S.Paulo.

The purchase is part of Desenrola 3.0, the third round of a federal debt-relief programme, and an auction is planned for November or December. Our Brazil economy guide tracks the wider picture, including interest rates and household spending.

What Brazil Announced

Durigan said the government expects lenders to offer about R$90 billion in total debt. It is not certain that all of it will be bought, because the amount auctioned and the discounts depend on creditor interest, said Rogério Ceron, the ministry’s executive secretary.

On Thursday 22 October the government will invite banks and funds to say how much debt they would sell, focusing on debts two to 4.5 years old. The auction would follow in November or December, and Durigan gave no new estimate of how many people would benefit.

In Plain English

  • Desenrola: Portuguese for “untangle”, the federal programme to clear overdue consumer debts.
  • Provisional measure: a decree with the force of law that Congress must still approve.
  • MEI: a micro-entrepreneur, a registered one-person business.
  • 90% discount: the state pays 10 centavos for each real of unpaid debt.

How the Debt Purchase Works

Desenrola 3.0 was created by provisional measure 1,393, published on 25 September, which lets the federal government buy portfolios of unpaid consumer debt at auction. The minimum discount of 90% is passed on to the debtor in full, according to the lower house of Congress.

The programme covers up to R$150 billion (about US$29.8 billion) in face value, with up to R$15 billion (about US$3.0 billion) of state money to buy it. Eligible debts, such as credit cards and personal loans, must each be under R$10,000 (about US$1,990) and overdue between 720 and 1,645 days.

Aerial view of the Esplanada dos Ministérios government district in Brasília
The Esplanada dos Ministérios in Brasília, where the Finance Ministry sits. File photo. Photo: Ana Volpe, Agência Senado, via site library

Politics Before the Runoff

Durigan criticised, without naming him, the proposal of Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative Liberal Party candidate in the runoff on Sunday 25 October. He compared it with a “calote generalizado”, or widespread default, in the financial system, Folha reported.

Flávio has said that, if elected, his government would buy the debts of defaulting Brazilians and refinance them through state lender Caixa Econômica Federal, with longer terms and lower rates. In Sunday’s debate he also promised to freeze personal debts for six months and company debts for one year.

What It Means for US Readers

For holders of Brazilian bank shares and ADRs such as Itaú (ITUB) and Nubank (NU), the key questions are how much old debt lenders choose to sell and at what price. Neither is public yet.

Buying R$90 billion at the 90% floor would cost R$9 billion, within the R$15 billion (about US$3.0 billion) limit set for the programme. All US$ figures use the market rate of R$5.03 per US$ on 21 October; see our dollar-to-real guide for how the real is quoted.

The same day, President Lula signed a separate law that will cancel federal tax debts of micro-entrepreneurs from January 2027, as we reported.

What Is Not Known

Banks have not yet said how much debt they will offer, and the discount they will accept is open above the 90% floor. No new estimate of the number of people who would benefit was given on 21 October.

The measure must also be approved by Congress within 120 days to become law. The runoff on Sunday 25 October will decide who carries the programme out.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Brazil’s Desenrola 3.0?

It is a federal programme under which the government buys overdue consumer debts from lenders at a discount of at least 90% and passes the saving to debtors. It was created by provisional measure 1,393 on 25 September.

How much debt could Brazil buy?

Durigan said the government may buy up to R$90 billion (about US$17.9 billion) in debts. The programme allows up to R$150 billion (about US$29.8 billion) in face value.

How much would it cost the government?

At the 90% minimum discount, R$90 billion of debt would cost R$9 billion (about US$1.8 billion). Spending is capped at R$15 billion (about US$3.0 billion).

When will the debts be bought?

Banks and funds are asked on Thursday 22 October to say what they would sell. The auction is planned for November or December.

Which debts are covered?

Mainly credit cards and personal loans, each under R$10,000 (about US$1,990) and between two and 4.5 years overdue. Individuals and micro-entrepreneurs are the focus.

Sources: Finance Minister Dario Durigan as reported by Folha de S.Paulo, 21 October 2026; Metrópoles, 21 October 2026; SBT News, 21 October 2026; Chamber of Deputies news service, 28 September 2026; Provisional Measure 1,393/2026, Planalto.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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