MEXICO · COPPER
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico is home to Grupo México, a mining and railway group that holds 88.9% of New York-listed Southern Copper and controls the US copper firm Asarco.
- —Why it matters The United States relied on imports for an estimated 57% of its copper in 2025 and has two primary smelters, so a restart at Hayden in Arizona would add scarce capacity.
- —Why now A senior executive of the group laid out the spending plan to analysts on Thursday 22 October 2026, two days after its third-quarter results.
- —What happened Grupo México plans to spend between US$4 billion and US$6 billion over three years on the main projects of Asarco, its US subsidiary.
- —The numbers Third-quarter copper output fell 1.9% to 260,322 tonnes. A Hayden restart would mean almost 350,000 tonnes of contained copper, or about 500,000 tonnes with the group’s refinery.
- —What it means for you Buyers of US copper and investors in New York-listed Southern Copper get an early look at possible new US supply, though no date has been set.
- —Still open How the money splits between the Ray mine, the Silver Bell mine and the Hayden smelter, and when any project is approved or starts.
- —Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
Grupo México plans to spend between US$4 billion and US$6 billion over the next three years on the main projects of its US unit Asarco, a senior executive told analysts on Thursday 22 October 2026. Leonardo Contreras, head of the group’s mining division, spoke two days after the Mexican miner published third-quarter results showing lower copper output.
For US readers the plan matters because the United States still imports much of its copper and has few smelters to process it. The US Geological Survey puts net import reliance at an estimated 57% of apparent consumption in 2025 and counts two primary smelters.
Asarco is a copper miner and processor controlled by Grupo México, and its projects named on the call are all in Arizona. The group’s shares closed Thursday down 4.34% on the Mexican exchange, and Forbes México linked the fall to weaker copper prices.
What Grupo México Plans for Asarco
Contreras said the US$4 billion to US$6 billion would go to Asarco’s main projects over three years, according to El Economista and La Jornada, which carried wire reports of the call. Neither report gives a split by project, a year-by-year schedule or a board approval date.
At the Ray mine in Arizona, Contreras said the company is keeping its expansion plan while it runs feasibility studies. The Silver Bell mine, also in Arizona, remains at the feasibility stage, and the company expects more clarity in coming quarters.
Contreras said the group is “increasingly optimistic” about restarting the Hayden smelter and refinery in Arizona. The complex can process 1.4 million tonnes of copper concentrate a year, according to the reports of the call.
A Hayden restart would mean almost 350,000 tonnes of contained copper, Contreras said, and about 500,000 tonnes if the material went to the group’s refinery. None of the reports reviewed gives a restart date.
Why Copper Output Fell in the Third Quarter
Grupo México’s copper output fell 1.9% to 260,322 tonnes in the third quarter, on lower volumes in Peru and at Asarco, partly offset by higher activity in Mexico. The group published its quarterly report on Tuesday 20 October 2026.
Southern Copper, the New York-listed unit of the group, filed its own results with the US Securities and Exchange Commission the same day. The filing puts its copper output at 232,396 tonnes, with a 6.1% drop in Peru that it attributes to lower ore grades.
The Ve por Más analyst note on the quarter also links the group’s 1.9% fall to lower ore grades. It calls the overall results better than the consensus expected.
The same note puts quarterly sales at US$6.33 billion, up 37.9% from a year earlier, and cash and investments at US$13.79 billion. The plan would equal between 29% and 44% of that cash, our arithmetic, though the company has not said how it will fund the projects.
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How Grupo México Plans Fit US Copper Policy
Copper joined the US Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals, published in the Federal Register on 7 November 2025, according to the Geological Survey. Forbes México adds that Washington has prioritised domestic copper production and secure supply chains for such minerals.
The Geological Survey calls Arizona the leading copper-producing state, with about 70% of US mine output in 2025. Ray and Silver Bell are mines in that state, and Hayden is a smelter in the same state.
The Survey also says US refined copper output fell an estimated 9% in 2025 because both primary smelters had planned maintenance. Primary refinery output from ore was an estimated 790,000 tonnes against refined copper consumption of 1.7 million tonnes.
The January Plan for Hayden
In January 2026 Asarco was moving ahead with plans to reopen and renovate the idle Hayden smelter and the Amarillo refinery in Texas, La Jornada reported on 28 January. Contreras put the overhaul at about US$230 million, and the report says it would lift smelting capacity to 600,000 tonnes of concentrate a year.
The October reports give Hayden’s capacity as 1.4 million tonnes of concentrate and do not mention the US$230 million or Amarillo. The sources reviewed do not reconcile the two sets of figures, so we report both as stated.
What It Means for You
A restart at Hayden would add US smelting capacity, which matters to manufacturers and builders that buy refined copper. No date has been given, so nothing changes for buyers yet.
Investors can follow the group through the Mexican-listed parent and through Southern Copper, which trades in New York under the symbol SCCO. Our Company Intelligence profile on Grupo México and our guide Copper in Latin America 2026: Mines, Prices and Politics cover the mines and the metal’s politics.
Our earlier report Grupo México Profit Jumps 63% to US$1.97B covers the quarterly results, and Southern Copper Plans US$471 Million in Peru covers its Peruvian spending. For the wider picture, see Mexico Natural Resources Explained 2026 and Who Runs Mexico’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026.
What Is Not Known
The company has not said how the US$4 billion to US$6 billion divides between Ray, Silver Bell and Hayden, or whether its board has approved the sums. Redimin, a Chilean mining magazine, describes them as investments under evaluation rather than money already spent.
We could not open Grupo México’s own quarterly report or a transcript of the call, because the company website blocked our requests. The quotes come from wire reports carried by El Economista, La Jornada and Forbes México, which agree on the figures they share.
It is also unknown when Hayden could restart, which permits it needs and how many jobs it would create. The reports reviewed give no timetable for any of the three projects.
What Comes Next
The company expects more clarity on Silver Bell in coming quarters, according to the reports of the call. Investors will watch whether the group attaches a date and a budget to Hayden.
The next quarterly reports will show whether Asarco’s output recovers and how much of the plan has been committed. Copper prices and the US policy debate over critical minerals will shape how fast the group moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will Grupo México spend on Asarco?
The group plans to spend between US$4 billion and US$6 billion over the next three years on Asarco’s main projects. An executive gave the range to analysts on Thursday 22 October 2026.
Which projects does the plan cover?
The projects named are an expansion of the Ray mine, the Silver Bell mine and a restart of the Hayden smelter and refinery, all in Arizona. Ray and Silver Bell are still in feasibility studies.
What would a Hayden restart add?
Contreras said it would mean almost 350,000 tonnes of contained copper, or about 500,000 tonnes with the group’s refinery. The complex can process 1.4 million tonnes of concentrate a year.
Why did Grupo México copper output fall?
Third-quarter output fell 1.9% to 260,322 tonnes on lower volumes in Peru and at Asarco, partly offset by Mexico. Southern Copper blames its Peruvian drop on lower ore grades.
What does it mean for US readers?
It points to possible new US copper smelting capacity at a time when the United States imports an estimated 57% of its copper. No start date or final approval has been announced.
Sources: El Economista, 22 October 2026; La Jornada, 22 October 2026; Forbes México, 23 October 2026; ABC Color, 22 October 2026; Redimin, 23 October 2026; Southern Copper results, SEC filing, 20 October 2026; Ve por Más, Grupo México 3T26 note, 20 October 2026; US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, copper; La Jornada, 28 January 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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