Global Economy Briefing: November 21, 2025
Read about Global Economy Briefing: November 21, 2025 on The Rio Times.
PMIs set the tone for a risk-on Friday. Services kept pulling the global cycle forward while manufacturing stayed patchy. The United States looked steady. Europe expanded on services but lost some goods momentum.
The United Kingdom stumbled on retail, a warning for holiday demand. India stayed the outlier: fast growth with thick FX buffers. Positioning data showed investors edging away from oil and gold and toward growth-sensitive assets.
United States
The economy kept expanding in November. Manufacturing printed 51.9, services 55.0, and the composite 54.8. Consumers turned a shade less gloomy and inflation expectations eased, with the one-year at 4.5 percent and the five-year at 3.4 percent.
Growth trackers held near 4.2 percent for the quarter. Oil rigs and total rigs rose again, pointing to stable supply. CFTC data showed reduced length in crude and gold and more in copper, the Nasdaq 100, and soybeans. That mix favors a soft-landing story and lets the Fed hold its fire.
Canada
Households pulled back. Retail sales fell 0.7 percent on the month and new house prices slipped 0.4 percent. Core retail still rose 0.2 percent, so the floor is not giving way. Lending conditions were unchanged in the BoC survey. The bank can stay patient, not sprint to cuts.
Europe and UK
The euro area kept growing. The composite PMI was 52.4, with services at 53.1 and manufacturing at 49.7. Germany cooled across the board, while France’s services crawled back above 50 and industry stayed weak.
Disinflation remained in place as German producer prices fell 1.8 percent year on year. Funding costs at Spain’s 10-year auction nudged higher.
In the UK, both services and composite slipped to 50.5 and manufacturing only just cleared 50. Retail sales fell 1.1 percent on the month and were barely up on the year. Borrowing ran high at £17.43 billion. The growth pulse looks fragile.
Latin America
Mexico’s September activity fell 0.6 percent on the month and rose only 0.7 percent on the year. Third-quarter GDP contracted 0.3 percent. Momentum is soft into year-end and argues for gradual, not aggressive, policy easing.
Asia-Pacific
India cooled a touch but stayed hot: manufacturing at 57.4, services at 59.5, and the composite near 60. FX reserves rose to $692.58 billion, a firm buffer for the rupee.
China’s FDI stayed negative, signaling lingering caution from foreign investors. Hong Kong inflation edged to 1.2 percent, still tame.
What it means
Services remain the global engine. Goods lag but are not collapsing. Disinflation and softer inflation expectations shrink policy tail risks. Europe grows only with services, and the UK looks vulnerable as spending weakens. India remains the clean growth story with reserves to match.
Portfolios should lean into quality duration, U.S. and India service-led exposure, and selective cyclicals tied to Asia’s demand, while keeping energy beta and deep goods cyclicals on a shorter leash until manufacturing PMIs turn.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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