Global Economy Briefing: November 24, 2025

A cautious Monday kept the “services-steady, goods-soft” narrative intact. Europe’s business mood slipped again. U.S. factory sentiment in Texas weakened.

Mexico’s mid-month inflation mix stayed benign on core. Singapore printed low inflation. Canada’s factories cooled after a strong September.

Brazil’s tax haul jumped, hinting at fiscal breathing room despite softer retail momentum earlier in the month.

United States

The Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to −10.4, signaling ongoing goods softness. Treasury bills tailed lower (3-month 3.745%, 6-month 3.670%), and the 2-year note auctioned at 3.489%.

The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index edged up to 106.84.

Translation: growth looks service-led; tight financing eases a touch at the front end, but factories remain under pressure.

Europe

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate eased to 88.1 as expectations dipped to 90.6; current conditions held near trough levels at 85.6. French short-bill funding stayed orderly with yields little changed.

Read-through: Europe is stabilizing, not re-accelerating. The ECB keeps optionality while watching a fragile recovery.

Asia-Pacific

Singapore’s CPI ran 1.2% y/y with flat m/m, and core printed 1.20%—a clean disinflation profile that supports a steady MAS stance.

Korea’s consumer confidence rose to 112.4, reinforcing resilient domestic demand. Japan was on holiday.

Net: Asia’s buffers and demand pockets remain constructive for risk.

Latin America

Mexico’s first-half November inflation showed headline firming to 0.47% m/m but core nearly flat at 0.04% m/m. That combination supports Banxico’s gradualism.

Brazil’s FGV consumer confidence rose to 89.8. Federal tax revenue surged to R$261.90B ($48B) in September, improving near-term fiscal optics even as activity data lately have cooled.

Policy lens: BCB can stay patient; fiscal signals turn less negative at the margin.

Canada

Manufacturing sales fell 1.1% m/m after +3.3% prior, consistent with a slower goods pulse. New housing weakness earlier and softer retail last week keep the BoC cautious on timing any easing.

What it means

The day reinforced a two-speed global mix: services and domestic demand keep growth positive, while manufacturing drags.

Inflation signals were friendly (Singapore, Mexico core), allowing major central banks to hold fire.

For positioning: duration remains supported by benign inflation and softer goods; emphasize service-heavy exposures in the U.S. and Asia, stay selective in Europe, and in LatAm favor stories with improving fiscal cushions and anchored core inflation.

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