Global Economy Briefing: November 20, 2025

A goods-side wobble met a still-resilient services pulse. Europe’s producer prices stayed soft, UK factory orders remained deeply negative, and euro-area construction slipped.

In the U.S., jobless claims edged up while October payroll detail (September vintage) showed moderate hiring and a higher unemployment rate.

Energy balances eased (a small gas draw), and funding costs at Spain’s 10-year auction rose modestly.

Asia printed gentle price gains (Korea) and firmer PMIs in Australia; New Zealand’s trade gap widened.

United States

Initial claims rose to 229k and continuing claims to 1.964 million. September-vintage labor details showed nonfarm payrolls 119k, private 97k, unemployment 4.4%, participation 62.4%, average hourly earnings 0.2% m/m and 3.8% y/y.

The Philadelphia Fed headline improved to −1.7, but new orders slipped (−8.6) and prices paid rose to 56.10. Natural-gas storage fell 14B.

Treasury cash signals were mixed: 10-year TIPS auctioned at 1.843%, the Fed balance sheet dipped to 6,555B while reserve balances rose to 2.918T.

What it means: labor is cooling without cracking; goods prices show stickiness at the margin, keeping the Fed patient rather than pivoting quickly.

Canada

Producer prices stayed firm: IPPI 1.5% m/m (6.0% y/y) and RMPI 1.6% m/m (5.8% y/y).

What it means: upstream cost pressure hasn’t fully faded, arguing for the Bank of Canada to move gradually even as headline CPI has cooled.

Europe and UK

German PPI was −1.8% y/y (0.1% m/m). Euro-area construction fell −0.49% m/m. Spain’s trade deficit was −6.00B and its 10-year auction cleared at 3.199%. UK CBI orders were −37.

What it means: disinflation is intact, but real-economy momentum remains soft, reinforcing an ECB/BoE “hold, then gradual” stance.

Asia-Pacific

Hong Kong CPI ticked up to 1.2% y/y. Korea PPI rose to 1.5% y/y (0.2% m/m), a mild pipeline signal.

Australia’s flash PMIs improved (manufacturing 51.6, services 52.7, composite 52.60). New Zealand’s deficit widened (exports 6.50B; imports 8.04B; monthly balance −1,542M).

What it means: Asia’s demand pockets remain steady, but NZ’s widening gap adds a small headwind to external balances.

Latin America and Africa

Brazil observed a market holiday (Black Awareness Day); Mexico released policy minutes (no figures in this dataset).

South Africa’s scheduled rate decision appeared on calendars but no outcome was recorded here.

What it means: little to change regional policy trajectories today.

What it means

Globally, inflation continues to drift lower where goods soften (Europe), while services and employment keep growth positive (U.S., Australia). Central banks can stay on hold and watch the data.

Portfolio tilt: favor quality duration, service-heavy exposures, and balance-sheet strength; be selective in deep cyclicals tied to capex and external demand until orders/new-export momentum turns.

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