Global Economy Briefing: November 26, 2025

A mixed mid-week sketched “resilient services, fragile goods” with fresh hints of policy space.

Asia printed upside surprises (Singapore’s factory surge, Australia’s capex jump, New Zealand’s retail rebound), while Europe’s financing costs edged higher at auctions and the ECB warned on stability.

In the U.S., claims improved but the Chicago PMI slumped and oil inventories rose—signals of cooling goods demand even as Q4 growth trackers stayed firm.

United States

Labor cooled gently: initial claims fell to 216k and continuing claims were 1.96 million. Orders were decent—durables +0.5% m/m, core +0.6%, non-defense ex-air +0.9%—but Chicago PMI sank to 36.3, flagging weak Midwestern manufacturing.

Housing stabilized at the margin (purchase index up to 181.6) despite a 6.40% mortgage rate. Energy loosened: crude +2.774M bbl, gasoline +2.513M, refinery use +2.3pp; rigs fell (oil 407; total 544).

Treasury supply cleared smoothly (4- and 8-week bills ~3.90/3.84%; 7-year 3.781%). GDPNow eased to 3.9%.

What it means: domestic demand can support a soft landing, but goods remain under pressure; the Fed can hold and watch.

Europe and UK

Market rates inched up (German 10-year 2.670%; Italy 6-month BOT 2.036%). Switzerland’s ZEW jumped back to positive (12.2).

Germany’s financial stability review from the ECB kept a cautious tone, and the UK’s Autumn Statement (details not in the dataset) framed fiscal settings into 2026.

What it means: disinflation progress meets fragile real activity; financing costs are stable but not falling—an argument for “higher for longer, then gradual.”

Latin America

Brazil’s mid-month CPI printed 0.20% m/m and 4.50% y/y, with bank lending growth slowing (0.9% m/m) and FX flows marginally positive ($0.02B).

What it means: inflation is contained enough for the BCB to stay patient; softer credit growth points to slower domestic demand into year-end.

Asia-Pacific

Singapore’s industrial production surged 11.5% m/m and 29.1% y/y, pointing to electronics up-cycle tailwinds.

Japan’s BoJ core CPI held 2.2% y/y and leading index rose to 108.6; the BoK stayed on hold at 2.50%.

Australia’s private capex beat hard (plant/machinery +11.5% q/q; total +6.4%), while New Zealand’s Q3 retail sales jumped 1.9% q/q and business confidence rose again.

China’s YTD industrial profits growth slowed to 1.9%. India’s broad money growth quickened to 9.8%.

What it means: Asia offers the week’s brightest growth spots; Australia/NZ momentum helps offset China’s still-soft corporate profits.

Bottom line

The day reinforced a soft-landing baseline: steady U.S. demand, weak U.S. manufacturing, and brighter Asia. Inflation signals and orderly funding keep central banks in “hold and assess” mode.

Positioning logic: favor quality duration; lean into service-led and Asia-ex-China growth (Australia/NZ, Singapore); stay selective in U.S. cyclicals tied to goods; and in Brazil, expect carry to hold while domestic momentum cools.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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