Fiscal Worries and Global Pressures Hit Ibovespa Hard
The Ibovespa index dropped 1.39% to 127,652.06 points today, losing almost 1,700 points in its steepest decline since June 7, when it fell 1.73%.
Concurrently, the commercial dollar surged 1.89% to R$ 5.58, while future interest rates (DIs) rose nearly 2% across the curve.
Brazil’s fiscal issues primarily drove this downturn. The Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) reported a recurring primary deficit of 1.6% of GDP for the 12 months ending in June 2024.
To meet the government’s zero primary deficit goal for 2024, a fiscal effort of 1.3% of GDP is necessary. In the first half of 2024, revenues increased by 6.0%, but expenses grew by 10.9%.
Despite government indications of budget cuts, skepticism persists. Planning and Budget Minister Simone Tebet stressed the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline, as directed by President Lula.
Tebet stated, “Our budget for next year must cater to all Brazil’s needs without exceeding our revenue, as the country cannot continue accumulating debt.”
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad noted that the 2025 budget limits have been allocated to ministries, following fiscal guidelines.
Political analysts highlighted the market’s anticipation of the upcoming Bimonthly Revenue and Expenditure Report, which will detail the government’s fiscal responsibility commitments.
Today, the Finance Ministry released its macroeconomic projections, keeping the GDP growth forecast for 2024 at 2.5%.
However, the 2025 projection was adjusted from 2.8% to 2.6%, with similar slight adjustments for subsequent years.
The Ibovespa’s decline affected most stocks, with only four rising:
- Petrobras ON (+0.12%),
- Embraer (+1.48%),
- WEG (+0.74%), and
- RD (+0.20%).
Significant losses hit
- Vale (-0.94%),
- Petrobras (-0.18%),
and financial sector stocks like
- B3 (-2.79%),
- Itaú Unibanco (-0.47%),
- Bradesco (-1.88%), and
- BB (-0.44%).
Sabesp fell 1.42% amid privatization uncertainties.
Fiscal Worries and Global Pressures Hit Ibovespa Hard
The meatpacking sector saw the largest drop following news of Newcastle disease at a poultry farm in Rio Grande do Sul.
As a result, BRF fell 7.88%, Marfrig 9.08%, JBS 2.45%, and Minerva 4.49%. Azul also faced a 7.87% drop due to the rising dollar.
Despite expected strong Q2 results, Rede D’or and Hapvida declined by 2.88% and 3.20%, respectively.
Internationally, Wall Street’s initial gains reversed as tech stocks, especially AI-related ones, continued to sell off.
European markets showed little enthusiasm after the ECB maintained interest rates, leaving the September decision open.
Deep Dive
For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.59%
176,501.85
-0.59%
67,298.78
+0.88%
10,959.17
-0.45%
3,356,435
-0.69%
2,313.99
+0.74%
57,575.02
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,501.85 | -0.59% | +30.36% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.60% | -8.60% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 43.19 | +1.43% | +34.98% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 43.10 | 14,613,500 |
| VALE3 | 76.08 | +1.30% | +32.51% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 9,955,400 |
| ITUB4 | 42.35 | -1.28% | +23.11% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.28 | 14,956,700 |
| BBDC4 | 18.71 | -1.37% | +17.95% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 10,231,200 |
| BBAS3 | 20.89 | -0.95% | +3.36% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 13,507,300 |
| B3SA3 | 15.56 | -2.14% | +16.13% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.52 | 20,741,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.89 | -1.49% | +16.85% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.87 | 8,825,300 |
| WEGE3 | 44.82 | -4.11% | +17.92% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 9,208,700 |
| PRIO3 | 60.98 | +2.02% | +43.58% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 3,759,200 |
| SUZB3 | 41.91 | -1.76% | -19.05% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.89 | 1,155,800 |
| RENT3 | 36.94 | -0.54% | +1.82% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 10,477,600 |
| AZZA3 | 17.25 | -3.14% | -53.53% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.22 | 1,354,500 |
| CSNA3 | 5.41 | +0.56% | -38.31% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 7,893,200 |
| GGBR4 | 24.31 | +1.04% | +41.11% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 4,692,500 |
| ENEV3 | 25.50 | -1.81% | +82.20% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 1,657,000 |
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