Ebrard Sees No Quick US Tariff Shift

MEXICO · TRADE

Published Wednesday, 28 October, 5:16 p.m. ET · Source: Mexican Ministry of Economy, US Trade Representative, US Section 232 tariff proclamations

Ebrard's Assessment

Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón said on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, that a rapid change in US tariff policy should not be expected, even if the November 3 US midterm elections alter the political balance in Washington. Speaking to reporters in Mexico City after signing a collaboration agreement with the Comisión Federal de Electricidad, Mexico's state electricity utility, Ebrard said the essential US policy he is observing is not feasible or expected to change drastically from one day to the next.

Ebrard noted that the tariffs already generate very important revenues for the United States. He added that assuming those measures would change quickly because of a shift in the political balance is probably not what should be expected.

The secretary said Mexico's negotiations with Washington were advancing but declined to give a timetable. He described the work as one of perseverance and said results could be seen in the coming days or weeks, though determining a date was very difficult.

Tariffs And Negotiations

The negotiations concern US measures affecting steel and aluminum, with reported tariffs of 50 percent, and automobiles, with a reported 25 percent tariff under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act. Section 232 permits tariffs justified on national-security grounds, and Ebrard said Mexico was seeking reductions affecting the automotive, steel and aluminum industries.

A separate Mexican press report says Mexico's formal proposal would reduce the automobile tariff from 25 percent to 15 percent, regardless of regional content. That proposal and its reported terms have not been confirmed in available US government material.

Ebrard traveled to Washington the week of October 19 to 23 for talks with the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Mexico has reportedly participated in three formal rounds of dialogue and expects a response from the White House before the end of 2026, according to a Mexican newspaper report updated on October 28.

Institutions And Context

The principal Mexican official is Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón, head of Mexico's Secretaría de Economía, the economy ministry. The Mexican side has been negotiating with the US Office of the United States Trade Representative, known as USTR, which Ebrard visited during his trip to Washington the previous week.

The US administration identified in the reports is that of President Donald Trump. One account names US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as a figure reportedly resistant to tariff reductions, but Ebrard rejected the idea that the talks were stalled and said he had not perceived Lutnick to be opposed to reducing the tariffs in his latest conversation.

The fourth bilateral review round under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, known as USMCA or T-MEC, had reportedly been postponed in September. Its rescheduling at the end of October remained unclear in the available reporting.

What It Means For US Businesses

For US companies that import Mexican steel, aluminum and automobiles, the absence of a quick tariff shift means current cost structures are likely to persist through at least the immediate post-election period. Ebrard's comments suggest that even a change in congressional control would not automatically trigger tariff relief, because the measures generate substantial US government revenue.

US automotive and industrial firms with Mexican supply chains face continued uncertainty over whether Mexico's reported proposal to cut the automobile tariff to 15 percent will be accepted. No final text, tariff schedule, exemption, quota or implementation date had been disclosed as of October 28, 2026.

The reported industry reaction is limited, with automotive-industry representatives said not to know the terms of any possible agreement. That indicates any deal remained undisclosed publicly, leaving US importers without a clear basis for planning.

What It Means for US Readers

US businesses importing Mexican steel, aluminum and automobiles should not expect immediate tariff relief after the November 3 midterm elections, according to Mexico's economy secretary. Ebrard said the tariffs already generate very important revenues for the United States, making a rapid policy shift unlikely.

The reported US tariffs are 50 percent on steel and aluminum and 25 percent on automobiles under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. Mexico has reportedly proposed reducing the automobile tariff to 15 percent, but that proposal has not been confirmed by US authorities.

The negotiations are being handled on the US side by the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Ebrard visited USTR in Washington the week of October 19 to 23, and Mexico has reportedly completed three formal rounds of dialogue.

What Is Not Known

No agreement has been announced. Ebrard described progress and proximity to a possible deal, but no final text, tariff schedule, exemption, quota or implementation date was disclosed.

The US negotiating position is unclear. The reports do not include a formal USTR or White House response confirming that Washington accepts Mexico's proposals.

The timing is unresolved. Ebrard said results could come within days or weeks, possibly after November 3, but explicitly said a date was difficult to determine.

The automobile proposal is not publicly documented in primary-source material. The reported reduction from 25 percent to 15 percent comes from Mexican press coverage and has not been confirmed by the US government.

The scope of any relief is unknown. It is not clear whether a possible arrangement would cover all Mexican exports, only qualifying products, or provide exemptions linked to regional content or other conditions.

The status of the T-MEC review is uncertain. The timing of the postponed fourth round was still unclear in the available reporting.

Exact speaking time and time zone are unavailable. The reports identify the date and location but do not state when, by clock time and zone, the Mexico City remarks occurred.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Marcelo Ebrard say about US tariffs after the midterm elections?

Ebrard said a rapid change in US tariff policy should not be expected even if the November 3 midterm elections alter the political balance in Washington. He noted that the tariffs already generate very important revenues for the United States, making a quick shift unlikely.

What tariffs is Mexico negotiating to reduce?

Mexico is negotiating reductions on reported US tariffs of 50 percent on steel and aluminum and 25 percent on automobiles under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. A Mexican press report says Mexico has proposed reducing the automobile tariff to 15 percent, but that has not been confirmed by US authorities.

When could a tariff agreement be announced?

Ebrard said results could come in the coming days or weeks, potentially after the November 3 US election, but he declined to give a firm date. No final agreement, tariff schedule or implementation date had been announced as of October 28, 2026.

Sources: Mexican Ministry of Economy, US Trade Representative, US Section 232 tariff proclamations.

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