Dollar Slides to 11-Month Low Against Real as Commodities and US Data Shift Market Balance
The US dollar traded at 5.4265 Brazilian reais on the morning of July 3, 2025, marking its lowest level since August 2024. This move followed a 0.75% drop from the previous session, as official data and charts confirmed.
The market responded to a combination of weak US employment figures, rising commodity prices, and ongoing fiscal and legal debates in both the United States and Brazil.
The ADP employment report showed the US private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, the first monthly decline since March 2023. This figure missed expectations by a wide margin and led traders to increase bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next meeting.
The probability of a cut rose to 23% from 21% the day before. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against major currencies, slipped to 96.773, reflecting broad-based dollar weakness.
Commodities played a central role in the real’s strength. Iron ore prices in Dalian, China, rose nearly 2%, while Brent crude oil gained close to 3%. These gains supported the Brazilian currency, as Brazil remains a major exporter of both resources.
The market also tracked a new US-Vietnam trade agreement, which imposed tariffs on Vietnamese goods but opened Vietnam’s market to US products. This deal contributed to a risk-on mood and further pressured the dollar.
Brazilian domestic factors added to the real’s momentum. The government continued to defend a decree raising the IOF financial operations tax, recently overturned by Congress and now under review by the Supreme Court.
Finance officials stated that the legal challenge aims to clarify the decree’s validity. The Central Bank’s monetary policy director emphasized that global dollar movements, rather than local factors, drive the exchange rate.
Industrial production in Brazil fell 0.5% in May, the second consecutive monthly drop, but still showed a 3.3% year-on-year increase, matching market expectations. Technical analysis of the daily chart revealed a persistent downtrend for the dollar against the real.
The price broke below key support at 5.45 and closed at 5.4265. The MACD indicator remained bearish, with the MACD line below the signal and a negative histogram.
The RSI hovered near 35, signaling the pair approached oversold territory but had not reached extreme levels. All major moving averages sat above the current price, confirming a bearish structure.
Bollinger Bands showed the price hugging the lower band, indicating strong downward momentum and a risk of a technical bounce. The four-hour chart showed short-term consolidation after a sharp drop, with the price fluctuating between 5.41 and 5.47.
The MACD remained negative but less steep, hinting at possible stabilization. The RSI dropped to 32, suggesting the market neared oversold conditions. Resistance levels stood at 5.4670 and 5.4900, while support held at 5.4520 and 5.4250.
The real’s advance reflects a mix of weak US data, strong commodity prices, and Brazil’s high interest rates. Market participants now await the US payroll report and further fiscal developments in both countries to gauge the next move.
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Commodities — Live Market Board
+2.01%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,073 | +1.55% | +19.72% | 4,010 | 4,088 | 4,003 | 107,494 |
| SILVER | 59.03 | +3.92% | +50.97% | 56.80 | 59.55 | 56.38 | 33,784 |
| BRENT | 91.01 | +2.01% | +31.50% | 89.22 | 91.97 | 87.88 | 37,370 |
| WTI | 84.27 | +1.25% | +25.40% | 83.23 | 85.03 | 81.39 | 227,281 |
| COPPER | 6.53 | +3.59% | +16.30% | 6.30 | 6.57 | 6.33 | 53,745 |
| LITHIUM | 69.22 | +3.43% | +62.86% | 66.92 | 69.35 | 68.35 | 226,828 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +65.48% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,222 | -0.31% | +20.42% | 1,226 | 1,230 | 1,217 | 116,154 |
| CORN | 475.25 | +5.73% | +17.71% | 449.50 | 476.50 | 469.00 | 136,202 |
| WHEAT | 677.25 | +0.48% | +24.90% | 674.00 | 678.75 | 665.25 | 52,780 |
| COFFEE | 322.80 | -3.47% | +8.60% | 334.40 | 335.40 | 320.75 | 14,600 |
| SUGAR | 14.90 | +0.54% | -8.98% | 14.82 | 14.97 | 14.76 | 45,002 |
| COCOA | 5,606 | +1.56% | -31.27% | 5,520 | 5,733 | 5,405 | 19,464 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 141.85 | -3.77% | -56.66% | 147.40 | 149.90 | 141.65 | 529 |
| COTTON | 80.03 | +3.44% | +20.27% | 77.37 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 9,915 |
| BEEF | 223.25 | -1.45% | -0.88% | 226.52 | 224.68 | 221.98 | 19,463 |
| CATTLE | 345.03 | -1.98% | +5.32% | 352.00 | 348.05 | 343.20 | 7,647 |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.41% | -9.12% | 5.09 | 5.09 | 5.07 | — |
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