Colombia’s Quiet Crossroads: Peso Steady Near 3,900 As Stocks Climb

Colombia woke up to a familiar balance on Thursday: the peso near 3,907 per dollar, the U.S. Dollar Index hovering around 99, and Brent crude in the mid-$60s.

That mix—slightly stronger dollar but firmer oil—has kept USD/COP locked in a 3.86–3.93 thousand range while equities push higher. The MSCI Colcap is tracking around 1,915 after a strong mid-week close.

The story behind the story is about two anchors pulling in opposite directions. A sturdier greenback tightens global financial conditions and usually pressures the peso.

Oil, still Colombia’s marquee export signal, has rebounded on fresh sanction headlines, improving terms of trade and sentiment around Ecopetrol and suppliers.

At home, inflation running a little above 5% and a 9.25% policy rate leave investors debating the pace of future cuts rather than expecting surprises before the October 31 central-bank meeting.

Portfolio flows have turned more cautious—Latin America equity ETFs recorded small net outflows this week—so local stocks have rallied mainly on micro stories and steady fundamentals rather than hot money.

Technicals tell the same tale in simpler form. On the four-hour chart, USD/COP momentum has turned up (RSI back above 50; MACD improving), pointing to a test of 3,918–3,930.

On the daily chart, the bigger trend stays neutral to slightly bearish unless the pair can close decisively above roughly 3,930; supports sit near 3,889/3,886 and 3,856–3,860.

For equities, the Colcap’s four-hour structure is trending up, and on the daily frame a sustained hold above 1,906 keeps pressure on recent highs; pullbacks toward 1,896–1,885 look buyable while momentum holds.

Top Movers (Wednesday)

Winners: Grupo Nutresa +4.87%; Bolsa de Valores de Colombia +2.81%; Grupo Argos +1.83%; Canacol Energy +2.06%; Grupo Sura +1.75%.

Losers: Empresa de Teléfonos de Bogotá (ETB) −8.00%; Mineros −2.46%; Ecopetrol −1.17%; Grupo Bolívar −1.00%; Enka −0.96%.

What to watch from here: any decisive break in the dollar’s range, fresh oil shocks, and guidance from Banco de la República. The range has held for weeks; when such ranges give way, the move is often swift.