Colombia’s Confidence Turns A Corner, But Big-Ticket Spending Lags

Colombia’s consumer mood edged back into positive territory in September 2025, with the Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) at a balance of 1.6%—up 17.6 points from a year earlier. It’s a clear sign that households feel less squeezed than they did in 2024.

Two levers moved the needle: views of the present and hopes for the year ahead. The Current Economic Conditions Index rose 6.9 points from August, while the Consumer Expectations Index gained 2.1 points.

Compared with September 2024, current conditions jumped 25.5 points and expectations rose 12.4 points—evidence the improvement is broader than a one-month blip.

The map is uneven. Barranquilla led with a monthly surge of 17.7 points and Bogotá added 7.8. Sentiment slipped in Medellín (−2.1), Bucaramanga (−7.6), and Cali (−10.8), showing how local job markets and price pressures shape confidence differently across cities.

The “wallet test” tells the rest of the story. Intentions to buy everyday durable goods—furniture and appliances—improved by 10.9 points versus August and are 30.4 points higher than a year ago.

But big purchases remain on ice: the national housing-purchase balance is −32.2%, with Barranquilla the only positive outlier at +2.8% (Bogotá −44.2%, Medellín −8.8%, Cali −31.3%, Bucaramanga −23.8%). Vehicle intentions are stuck at −45%.

Behind the story: inflation in September ran at 5.18% year over year, keeping pressure on budgets, and borrowing remains costly with rates expected to finish the year near 9%.

Policy uncertainty eased—Fedesarrollo’s uncertainty gauge fell to 232 in September—but not enough to unlock wallets for homes and cars.

In plain terms, people feel a bit better about today and not too worried about tomorrow, yet they still flinch at taking on long-term debt.

Why it matters beyond Colombia: stronger day-to-day spending in a 50-million-person market supports regional suppliers—from Brazilian consumer-goods firms to logistics and retail networks.

But until inflation cools further and financing gets cheaper, the recovery will likely stay patchy across cities and sectors.