ECONOMY · COLOMBIA
Key Facts
- The country Colombia. Fedesarrollo, a private economic research institute in Bogotá, surveys manufacturers and retailers every month.
- What happened Fedesarrollo’s industrial confidence index slipped to 5.8% in August from 6.1% in July, it reported on Wednesday (30 September). Commercial confidence fell harder, to 23.3% from 27.5%.
- The numbers Industry is 0.5 points above August 2025 (5.3%); commerce is 3.2 points below its 26.5% of a year earlier. Factory capacity use was 71.1% in August.
- What it means for you Retailers expect a weaker six months ahead, a signal to watch for consumer spending. Factories, by contrast, report better orders and rate investment conditions far better than in May.
- Still open Whether retail gloom deepens after the central bank’s rate rise to 12.25% on 30 September. On its usual monthly timing, the September survey should follow in late October.
Colombia business confidence eased in August, with factories holding steady while shopkeepers turned noticeably more cautious. Fedesarrollo, a private economic research institute in Bogotá, published its monthly business opinion survey on Wednesday (30 September).
The industrial confidence index fell to 5.8% from 6.1% in July. The commercial confidence index, which tracks retailers, dropped to 23.3% from 27.5%, according to Fedesarrollo figures reported by La República and Portafolio.
What the two indices measure
Both indices are balances: the share of firms answering positively minus the share answering negatively. A reading above zero means optimists outnumber pessimists.
The industrial index combines order books, inventories and expected production for the next quarter. The commercial index combines the current economic situation, inventories and expectations for the next six months.
Industry: steady, with better order books
Industry lost only 0.3 points, and the reading is still 0.5 points above August 2025. The dip came from higher inventories, which rose 6.7 points and weigh on the index.
Against that, the balance for current orders improved to -22.6% from -26.2%. Expected production for the next quarter rose to 40.1% from 37.7%, La República reported.
Capacity use is softer. Factories ran at 71.1% of installed capacity in August, down 1.2 points from May and below 73.1% in August 2025.
Retail: expectations fall fastest
The commercial index lost 4.2 points in a single month. Expectations for the next six months fell to 38.2% from 46.5%.
The view of the current situation slid to 33.2% from 40.4%. Lower inventories cushioned the fall slightly.
Valora Analitik reported that Fedesarrollo attributed the decline mainly to weaker expectations for the coming semester. Even so, retail confidence remains well above zero.
Its three-month average stands at 26.5%, which smooths out the August drop.
Investment conditions improve sharply
The quarterly questions on investment told a brighter story. The balance on economic conditions for investing rose to 11.5% in August from -23.8% in May.
The balance on sociopolitical conditions swung to 39.5% from -46.7% in May, an 86.2-point shift. It was the first quarterly reading since Colombia’s new government took office on 7 August.
Costs remain a headwind, with inflation at 6.24% in August (see Colombia Inflation Accelerates to 6.24 Percent in August). The central bank, Banco de la República, raised its benchmark rate on 30 September.
That decision is covered in Colombia Raises Its Policy Rate to 12.25%: What Expats and Savers Need to Know. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh first on consumer spending and retail.
What Is Not Yet Known
The August survey predates the rate rise. Its effect on Colombia business confidence is not yet visible.
The September survey, normally published about a month later, will show it first. It is also unclear whether the investment optimism will translate into actual spending.
Fedesarrollo’s survey measures intentions and perceptions, not projects approved or money committed.
Sources: Fedesarrollo, Encuesta de Opinión Empresarial, August 2026 (released 30 September 2026), as reported by La República, Portafolio and Valora Analitik; July 2026 survey via La República (27 August 2026); August 2025 capacity use via Portafolio.
More: Colombia news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
In depth
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