Chile Poised To Elect Pro-Trump, Pro-Bolsonaro Kast, Polls Indicate

Key Points

• Polls put José Antonio Kast, often dubbed “Chile’s Bolsonaro”, on course to win Chile’s presidential runoff.
• His rise channels anger over crime, migration and stalled reforms, and markets expect a more predictable agenda.
• A Kast victory would align Chile with a rightward shift linked to Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump.

Recent polls suggest José Antonio Kast is the clear favourite to win Chile’s presidential runoff, pushing a key Latin American democracy sharply to the right.

The lawyer and Republican Party founder, long described in media as “Chile’s Bolsonaro”, has aligned himself with Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and voiced admiration for former US president Donald Trump.

From abroad, Chile can still look like a success story built on open markets and solid institutions. Inside the country, the mood has soured. Years of rising violent crime, gang cases and widely shared videos of robberies have made security the dominant concern.

At the same time, close to two million migrants – many from crisis-hit Venezuela – have arrived, fuelling anxiety over borders and control.

The current left-wing government of Gabriel Boric promised to turn the 2019 street protests into a fairer economic model and a new constitution.

Kast Rises as Chile Turns Right Amid Security Fears

Instead, it became bogged down in infighting and a split Congress. Two draft constitutions were rejected by voters, and many Chileans feel everyday problems such as crime, health waiting lists and job insecurity never improved.

Kast has stepped into that frustration with a blunt message: restore order, defend national identity and give business clearer rules. He pledges to send the military into high-crime areas, reinforce the northern border and speed up deportations of people without legal status.

Markets have broadly welcomed the prospect of a tougher, more market-friendly government, with Chilean assets rallying on hopes of lighter regulation and greater legal stability.

The stakes go beyond one election. Chile is a major copper and lithium supplier and a reference point for policy debates across the region.

If Kast wins, it will show that Latin America’s showcase is joining a wider rightward turn driven less by ideology than by fear that security and control have slipped away.