Bulgaria Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026

BULGARIA · POLITICS

Who Holds Power Today

Prime Minister Rumen Radev runs Bulgaria’s government, backed by an absolute majority in parliament, and the live story is a presidential runoff on Sunday 1 November. For US readers the contest matters because Bulgaria is a NATO member on the Black Sea, where drones have recently hit merchant ships.

This guide is part of The Rio Times series on European politics. See also our guides to Spain and Germany’s AfD debate.

Radev is a former air force general who served as president from 2017 until January 2026. He resigned that post to lead his new party into the April election, and parliament voted him prime minister on 8 May 2026.

How the System Works

Bulgaria is a parliamentary republic. The prime minister heads the government and sets policy, while the president is head of state with mostly ceremonial duties.

The president can send laws back to parliament and names the caretaker prime ministers who run the country between governments. The president also chairs the Consultative Council on National Security and is commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

Parliament is the 240-seat National Assembly. At the 19 April 2026 election, Progressive Bulgaria won about 43.9% of the vote and 131 seats, an outright majority.

GERB, the long-dominant centre-right party, took 39 seats. PP-DB, a pro-Western alliance of We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria, took 37, and the remaining seats went to two smaller parties, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (21) and Revival (12).

Voters elect the president directly for a five-year term, on a joint ticket with a vice president. Parliament serves four years, so the next general election is due by spring 2030 unless the government falls early.

The First Round on 25 October

Iotova, a former journalist and member of the European Parliament, served as Radev’s vice president from 2017 until she took over the presidency. That link explains why the runoff is read as a verdict on the prime minister’s first six months.

Iliana Iotova, who succeeded Radev as president in January 2026, won 34.76% of the vote. Andrey Gyurov, a former deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank who briefly served as caretaker prime minister this year, took 31.95%.

Neither passed the 50% mark, and only 22.93% of 6.64 million registered voters took part. That is far below the roughly 40% of the 2021 first round and reflects deep fatigue after years of repeated elections.

Iotova is backed by Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria and by the Bulgarian Socialist Party, the post-communist left. Gyurov is backed by the pro-Western We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria alliance.

Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the nationalist Revival party, came third with 12.5%. His voters could decide the runoff, though he has no formal power over where they go.

What Happens on 1 November

The runoff between Iotova and Gyurov takes place on Sunday 1 November. Polls close at 8 p.m. Bulgarian time, which is 1 p.m. ET, and counting begins immediately.

Iotova stresses peace through negotiation with Russia, while Gyurov stresses Bulgaria’s Euro-Atlantic ties, according to their campaigns. A Gyurov win would put a president from the opposition beside a government that holds a firm majority.

Both candidates need more votes than the other, so the winner needs only a simple majority of votes cast in the second round. The Central Election Commission, Bulgaria’s electoral authority, publishes preliminary results overnight and certified results within days.

The Black Sea and Russia

On 13 October drones attacked two merchant ships off Bulgaria’s coast and one sank. Radev said Bulgaria lacks clear and conclusive evidence to blame either side, but that “the logic suggests that the outcome benefits the Russian Federation”, and he summoned the Russian ambassador.

One of the ships, the HS Dignity, sank with 11 sailors reported missing. Bulgaria has not named a culprit.

Budget and Economy

Bulgaria adopted the euro on 1 January 2026 and has been in the Schengen travel area in full since 1 January 2025. The 2026 deficit is about 5% of economic output on the government’s updated forecast, and Brussels has placed Bulgaria under an excessive deficit procedure, a formal review of overspending.

The 2027 plan aims for a deficit of about 4.3%. Bulgaria sent its draft budgetary plan to the European Commission, the EU executive, on 15 October.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a prediction market where US$2.2 million has been traded, prices Iliana Iotova at 69.5% to win Bulgaria’s presidential election. Andrey Gyurov is priced at 28.5%.

These prices are bets, not polls, and they were read on 27 October at 1:35 a.m. ET. They show what traders expect, not what the voters will decide on 1 November.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

For investors, Bulgaria is a euro-area member with a government that holds a stable majority, so the runoff is unlikely to change fiscal policy. The 2027 budget draft and the deficit path are the numbers to watch, since a euro-area member in a deficit procedure is a credit-quality question for bond buyers.

Bulgarian eurobonds and local banks now trade on euro-area terms, which removes currency risk that once worried US funds.For security and shipping, the drone strikes raise insurance and routing questions for vessels near Romanian and Bulgarian ports.Americans can travel in Bulgaria without a visa for short stays, and the Schengen membership means no passport checks on most European land and air links.

What Is Not Known

Nobody knows who will win on 1 November. The first-round gap was under three percentage points, and turnout was so low that a small shift among Kostadinov’s voters or the many who stayed home could change the result.

Responsibility for the drone attacks has not been officially established. When the government will present the domestic 2027 state budget, and whether that is late under the Public Finance Act, is also not settled.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who holds power in Bulgaria?

Prime Minister Rumen Radev, whose Progressive Bulgaria party holds 131 of 240 seats in parliament. President Iliana Iotova is head of state with largely ceremonial powers.

When is Bulgaria’s presidential runoff?

Sunday 1 November 2026. Polls close at 8 p.m. Bulgarian time, which is 1 p.m. ET, and the choice is Iliana Iotova or Andrey Gyurov.

What was the first-round result?

Iotova won 34.76% and Gyurov 31.95% on 25 October. Turnout was 22.93% of about 6.64 million registered voters.

Does the runoff change who runs the government?

Not directly. The prime minister and cabinet depend on parliament, where Progressive Bulgaria has a majority, but the president can return laws and appoint caretaker governments.

Is Bulgaria in the euro and Schengen?

Yes. Bulgaria joined the euro on 1 January 2026 and became a full Schengen member on 1 January 2025.

Sources: Central Election Commission of Bulgaria; National Assembly of Bulgaria; Government of Bulgaria; President of Bulgaria; Ministry of Finance of Bulgaria; Bulgarian National Bank.