BlackRock, a leading global asset manager, is favoring fixed-income investments in Brazil for 2024 over equities.
This preference aligns with Brazil’s Selic rate, which is currently at 12.25% per year.
The firm views these rates as attractive, offering a short-term window for investment before anticipated rate cuts by the Central Bank.
BlackRock’s Chief Investment Strategist for Latin America, Axel Christensen, communicated this strategy to journalists.
Given the high rates and somewhat weaker economic activity, he noted that the firm is more comfortable with debt allocation in Brazil.
However, this stance might shift as interest rates decrease and the economy gains strength.
BlackRock currently maintains a neutral position on emerging markets, partly influenced by China’s significant role in its portfolio and a cautious approach to the country.
Within emerging markets, the firm is optimistic about India and Mexico.
India’s investments in technology, especially artificial intelligence, are areas where BlackRock is overweight.
Mexico’s appeal lies in the nearshoring phenomenon, which is expected to draw more investments.
Conversely, BlackRock‘s outlook for the United States, China, and Europe is less optimistic.
In the U.S., despite market rallies driven by hopes of interest rate cuts, BlackRock sees potential risks in these scenarios not materializing.
For Europe, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) aggressive monetary policy could slow down the economy, impacting the European stock market.
Short-term U.S. government bonds
Unique in its classification, Japan receives an above-average market recommendation from BlackRock.
The country’s share buybacks and corporate-focused reforms have positively influenced its market.
Looking ahead to 2024, BlackRock shows a strong inclination towards short-term U.S. government bonds (Treasuries).
The firm expects U.S. rates to remain high, favoring this investment approach. However, BlackRock has slightly adjusted its global fixed-income allocation.
It has reduced its position in U.S. inflation-linked bonds and downgraded European and British government bonds from overweight to neutral.
In global investment-grade bonds, the firm shifted its stance from overweight to neutral.
BlackRock now prefers European investment-grade bonds over U.S. ones, citing tighter spreads not compensating for the impact of rising rates on corporate balance sheets.
This strategic realignment reflects BlackRock’s adaptive approach to the changing global economic landscape.