Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for July 11, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are poised for another volatile session today, driven by domestic service sector data, global economic indicators, and ongoing trade tensions stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, effective August 1, 2025.
These tariffs, announced in response to Brazil’s perceived actions against former President Jair Bolsonaro, continue to pressure the Brazilian real and equities, amplifying market uncertainty.
The Central Bank of Brazil’s (BCB) Selic rate, steady at 15% since June 18, 2025, anchors market dynamics, targeting inflation at 5.32%—well above the 3% ceiling—while increasing borrowing costs.
With a 76.2% public debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected R$104 billion fiscal deficit for 2025, this policy supports the real through carry trade but strains sectors like real estate and retail.
Today’s economic agenda is critical, providing insights into domestic service sector performance, global demand, and trade dynamics that could shape market trends.
Key domestic events include Brazil’s Service Sector Growth (MoM and YoY) for May, released at 8:00 AM BRT, which will signal the health of a key economic driver amid high interest rates and tariff pressures.
Stronger-than-expected growth could bolster confidence in domestic demand, while weaker data may heighten concerns about economic slowdown.
Globally, U.K. GDP and industrial production data at 2:00 AM EST, French CPI at 2:45 AM EST, Canadian employment data at 8:30 AM EST, and the U.S. Federal Budget Balance at 2:00 PM EST will influence commodity demand and risk sentiment.
These events are pivotal as the Ibovespa hovers around 136,743 points, the Brazilian real remains under pressure at R$5.5596, and commodities face headwinds from trade disputes.
Economic Agenda
Brazil and Mexico
Brazil
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (MoM) (May): Consensus TBD, previous 0.2%. Tracks monthly service sector performance, a key GDP contributor, signaling domestic demand trends.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (YoY) (May): Consensus TBD, previous 1.8%. Measures annual service sector growth, critical for assessing economic resilience amid high interest rates.
Mexico
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (May): Consensus -1.9%, previous -4.0%. Tracks annual industrial activity, impacting regional trade sentiment.
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (May): Consensus -0.1%, previous 0.1%. Measures monthly industrial trends, influencing Brazil’s export markets.
Key Events
United Kingdom
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – GDP (MoM) (May): Actual -0.1%, consensus 0.1%, previous -0.3%. Signals monthly economic growth, impacting demand for Brazilian exports.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – GDP (YoY) (May): Actual 0.7%, consensus 0.7%, previous 1.1%. Tracks annual economic growth, influencing commodity demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (May): Actual -0.9%, consensus -0.1%, previous -0.6%. Measures monthly industrial activity, affecting Brazil’s exports.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (May): Actual -0.3%, consensus 0.1%, previous 0.3%. Tracks annual industrial trends, impacting commodity markets.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May): Actual -1.0%, consensus -0.1%, previous -0.7%. Signals monthly manufacturing trends, influencing trade flows.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Manufacturing Production (YoY) (May): Actual 0.3%, consensus 0.4%, previous 1.3%. Reflects annual manufacturing activity, affecting export demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Construction Output (MoM) (May): Actual -0.6%, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.8%. Tracks monthly construction activity, impacting commodity demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Construction Output (YoY) (May): Actual 1.2%, consensus 1.7%, previous 3.6%. Measures annual construction trends, influencing Brazil’s exports.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (May): Actual -21.69B, consensus -21.10B, previous -22.42B. Reflects trade dynamics, impacting currency flows.
France
- 2:45 AM EST / 3:45 AM BRT – French CPI (MoM) (Jun): Actual 0.4%, consensus 0.3%, previous -0.1%. Tracks monthly inflation, influencing commodity demand.
- 2:45 AM EST / 3:45 AM BRT – French CPI (YoY) (Jun): Actual 1.0%, consensus 0.9%, previous 0.7%. Signals annual inflation trends, impacting Eurozone demand for Brazilian exports.
- 2:45 AM EST / 3:45 AM BRT – French HICP (YoY) (Jun): Actual 0.9%, consensus 0.8%, previous 0.6%. Reflects harmonized inflation, critical for Brazil’s trade outlook.
- 2:45 AM EST / 3:45 AM BRT – French HICP (MoM) (Jun): Actual 0.4%, consensus 0.4%, previous -0.2%. Measures monthly harmonized inflation, affecting trade sentiment.
Germany
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – German WPI (YoY) (Jun): Actual 0.9%, previous 0.4%. Tracks annual wholesale price trends, influencing commodity demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – German WPI (MoM) (Jun): Actual 0.2%, consensus 0.2%, previous -0.3%. Measures monthly wholesale price changes, impacting trade flows.
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – German Current Account Balance n.s.a (May): Consensus TBD, previous 23.5B. Reflects economic stability, influencing trade dynamics.
Canada
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Employment Change (Jun): Consensus 0.9K, previous 8.8K. Tracks labor market health, influencing risk sentiment.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Jun): Consensus 7.1%, previous 7.0%. Reflects labor market trends, impacting commodity demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Building Permits (MoM) (May): Consensus -1.5%, previous -6.6%. Signals construction activity, affecting commodity markets.
United States
- 1:00 PM EST / 2:00 PM BRT – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Consensus TBD, previous 425. Tracks drilling activity, impacting Brazil’s energy sector.
- 1:00 PM EST / 2:00 PM BRT – U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: Consensus TBD, previous 539. Signals energy sector trends, influencing Petrobras’ outlook.
- 2:00 PM EST / 3:00 PM BRT – Federal Budget Balance (Jun): Consensus -41.5B, previous -316.0B. Reflects fiscal trends, impacting global risk sentiment.
Second-Tier Events
Norway
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Jun): Actual 47.4B, previous 46.1B. Reflects trade dynamics, influencing commodity markets.
Switzerland
- 3:03 AM EST / 4:03 AM BRT – SECO Consumer Climate (Jun): Consensus -35, previous -37. Gauges consumer sentiment, affecting trade flows.
Italy
- 5:10 AM EST / 6:10 AM BRT – Italian 3-Year BTP Auction: Consensus TBD, previous 2.24%. Signals investor confidence, impacting capital flows.
- 5:10 AM EST / 6:10 AM BRT – Italian 7-Year BTP Auction: Consensus TBD, previous 3.02%. Reflects debt demand, influencing emerging markets.
- 5:10 AM EST / 6:10 AM BRT – Italian 15-Year BTP Auction: Consensus TBD, previous 4.06%. Gauges long-term debt demand, affecting risk sentiment.
India
- 7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT – Bank Loan Growth: Consensus TBD, previous 9.6%. Tracks credit trends, influencing export demand.
- 7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT – Deposit Growth: Consensus TBD, previous 10.4%. Reflects banking sector health, impacting trade flows.
- 7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT – FX Reserves, USD: Consensus TBD, previous 702.78B. Signals currency stability, affecting emerging markets.
United Kingdom
- 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Jun): Consensus TBD, previous 0.4%. Tracks economic growth, influencing commodity demand.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On July 10, 2025, Brazil’s B3 stock market extended its decline, with the Ibovespa falling 0.54% to 136,743 points, its lowest close since May, according to official exchange data.
The U.S.’s 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, effective August 1, 2025, citing Brazil’s actions against Jair Bolsonaro, triggered risk aversion.
The announcement led to a sell-off in sectors exposed to international trade, with Embraer dropping 3.7% due to its 60% U.S. revenue reliance.
Itaú Unibanco and Cosan also fell over 3%, reflecting trade and fiscal uncertainty. However, commodity-focused firms like Marfrig, up over 6% on global protein demand, and CSN benefited from sector rotation.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks edged higher on July 10, 2025, with the S&P 500 rising 0.3% to 6,280.46, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.4% to 44,650.46, and the Nasdaq composite up 0.1% to 20,630.66, marking its second consecutive record high.
The Russell 2000 rose 0.5% to 2,263.41. Delta Air Lines surged 12% and United Airlines climbed 14.3% after strong 2025 outlooks, while WK Kellogg jumped 30.6% following its acquisition by Ferrero Group. Copper prices rose, supporting industrial sentiment.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real weakened further on July 10, 2025, with the USD/BRL rising to R$5.5596, a five-week low, driven by the U.S.’s 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods and a rising dollar index.
Trade tensions eroded confidence, with today’s service sector data and U.S. budget balance expected to shape currency trends.
Oil Prices
Oil markets remained steady on July 10, 2025, despite supply pressures and weak demand signals, impacting Petrobras’ revenues.
Brent crude held firm as tariff fears offset supply constraints. Today’s U.S. Baker Hughes rig counts and Canadian employment data will provide demand insights for Brazil’s energy sector.
Gold Prices
Gold prices remained stable on July 10, 2025, supported by trade tensions and central bank activity, benefiting Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale.
U.S.-Brazil tariff disputes bolstered safe-haven demand. Today’s French CPI and U.S. budget balance will influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver prices hit a 13-year high on July 10, 2025, driven by robust fundamentals and a technical breakout, supporting Brazil’s mining exports.
Tariff uncertainties tempered gains. Today’s U.K. industrial production and Canadian employment data will guide industrial and safe-haven demand.
Copper Prices
Copper prices held elevated levels on July 10, 2025, despite trade policy shocks from U.S. tariffs, pressuring Vale’s revenues. Today’s U.K. industrial production and French CPI will clarify industrial demand trends.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin surged past $118,000 on July 10, 2025, driven by short-seller liquidations and ETF inflows, supporting Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc.
Tariff fears moderated risk appetite. Today’s U.S. budget balance and Canadian employment data will influence crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices surged 2.67% on July 10, 2025, fueled by strong Chinese demand, supporting Vale’s outlook despite tariff risks. Today’s U.K. GDP and French CPI will signal commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces challenges from the 15% Selic rate, which elevates borrowing costs for exporters and domestic firms.
Fiscal pressures, with a R$104 billion deficit and 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio, are compounded by U.S. 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, threatening export revenues.
Today’s service sector data, U.K. GDP, and French CPI will shape export demand and market sentiment for Brazil’s key industries. Below are key developments impacting the market:
Moura Dubeux’s Real Estate Growth
Moura Dubeux’s regional expansion redefined Brazil’s real estate market, boosting construction sector optimism despite high interest rates.
Eataly Brasil’s Challenges
Eataly Brasil shifted to survival mode amid economic headwinds, reflecting pressures on Brazil’s retail and hospitality sectors.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is applied here for consistency, as requested, and is the standard for U.S. financial markets, influencing global trading schedules.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+2.63%
192,114.55
+2.63%
64,531.68
+1.10%
10,916.57
+0.08%
2,767,663
+0.32%
2,515.02
-0.59%
59,751.67
+0.18%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 192,114.55 | +2.63% | +21.85% | 187,197.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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