U.S. Trade Surplus With Brazil Soars 500% as Tariff Fears Loom

The United States’ trade surplus with Brazil jumped to $1.7 billion in the first half of 2025—a fivefold increase compared to last year—according to new data from the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil (Amcham).

Total trade between the two countries reached $41.7 billion, the second-highest level ever recorded, but the outlook is clouded by rising tariffs.

Key Figures:

• Total trade (Jan–June 2025): $41.7 billion (+7.7%)
• Brazilian exports to U.S.: $20 billion (+4.4%), led by beef (+142%), fruit juices (+74%), coffee (+39%), and aircraft (+12.1%)
• Brazilian imports from U.S.: $21.7 billion (+11.5%)
• U.S. trade surplus: $1.7 billion (up 500% from 2024)

Tariff Impact

While overall trade is growing, many important Brazilian exports—such as pulp, engines, machinery, wood products, and auto parts—are declining due to higher U.S. tariffs. Eight of the ten biggest falling export categories are affected by these new duties.

The situation may worsen soon: starting August 1, the U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Brazilian goods to 50%. Amcham warns this could severely damage Brazil’s industrial exports and disrupt supply chains that benefit both countries.

Mutual Risks

Nearly 80% of Brazil’s exports to the U.S. are industrial goods. The two economies are closely linked—for example, Brazil assembles planes with U.S. parts and sells them back to the U.S.

Both sides would suffer if trade barriers rise: Brazil would lose a key export market, and the U.S. would lose a trusted supplier.

Call for Action

Amcham urges both governments to find a diplomatic solution, warning that higher tariffs could cost jobs, investment, and economic stability on both sides.

“If tariffs go up, both countries will lose,” said Amcham president Abrão Neto. “We need dialogue and balance to protect this vital partnership.”

Bottom Line

Despite strong trade numbers, the U.S.-Brazil economic relationship faces serious risks from new tariffs. Without compromise, both nations stand to lose from a trade conflict neither can afford.

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