Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 28, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are set for an eventful trading session today, shaped by a critical domestic budget release and a slew of influential global economic indicators that could dictate market sentiment and capital flows.
Today’s economic calendar in Brazil features the Budget Balance at 08:30 local time (11:30 GMT), a key measure of fiscal health that tracks government revenues against expenditures.
This release is vital as it signals Brazil’s ability to manage its fiscal deficit amid ongoing concerns over public spending and debt sustainability—factors that heavily influence investor confidence and the real’s stability in a high-interest-rate environment.
Globally, the U.S. will release the Core PCE Price Index at 08:30 EST (13:30 GMT), the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, which could sway expectations for U.S. monetary policy and impact global risk appetite, commodity prices, and emerging market flows, including Brazil’s.
At 09:45 EST (14:45 GMT), the Chicago PMI will provide insights into U.S. manufacturing activity, a bellwether for industrial demand that affects Brazil’s commodity exports.
In Europe, Germany’s Retail Sales at 04:00 CET (03:00 GMT) and CPI at 08:00 CET (07:00 GMT) will shed light on consumer spending and inflationary pressures in the Eurozone’s largest economy, influencing demand for Brazilian goods and global investor behavior.
Meanwhile, China’s Manufacturing, Composite, and Industrial PMIs, released between 08:30 PM and 10:30 PM local time (07:30 GMT to 09:30 GMT), will signal industrial activity in a key export market for Brazil, particularly for commodities like soy and iron ore.
Economic Agenda for February 28, 2025
Brazil
08:30 AM – Budget Balance: This indicator will provide insights into Brazil’s fiscal health. A better-than-expected result could ease concerns about fiscal sustainability, while a weaker figure might amplify worries about public debt and government spending.
United States
08:30 AM – Core PCE Price Index (MoM and YoY): These measures of inflation are closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Higher-than-expected readings could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, impacting global risk appetite and capital flows to emerging markets like Brazil.
09:45 AM – Chicago PMI: This manufacturing activity gauge will offer insights into U.S. industrial health. A stronger-than-expected result could support commodity prices but might also heighten concerns about further Fed rate hikes.
Germany
04:00 AM – Retail Sales: This data reflects consumer demand in Europe’s largest economy, influencing the outlook for Brazilian exports.
08:00 AM – German CPI (MoM): Inflation data from Germany will provide clues about the European Central Bank’s policy direction, affecting global markets.
China
08:30 PM – Manufacturing PMI: This indicator will reveal the state of China’s industrial sector, a key driver of demand for Brazilian commodities like iron ore and soybeans.
10:30 PM – Composite PMI and Industrial PMI: These metrics will further illuminate China’s economic trajectory, impacting Brazil’s export prospects.
These events are pivotal as they collectively shape Brazil’s fiscal outlook, export potential, and attractiveness to foreign investors amid global economic uncertainties.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa closed nearly flat on February 27, at 124,798.96 points. Gains from Embraer offset losses from Petrobras, which reported disappointing Q4 results. Trading volume reached R$1.14 billion, reflecting cautious sentiment amid mixed corporate earnings and macroeconomic concerns.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian real faced pressure as the U.S. dollar hit R$5.84, a 0.65% increase, fueled by Trump’s tariff moves shaking global markets and amplifying currency volatility.
United States
U.S. markets experienced sharp declines:
- S&P 500 fell 1.6%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4%.
- Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.8%.
Concerns over the U.S. economy and faltering AI-related stocks weighed heavily on sentiment.
Commodity Markets
Oil
Oil prices rose as tightening U.S. policies constrained global supply. This trend could benefit Brazil’s oil sector despite Petrobras’ recent challenges.
Gold
Gold remained below $2,900 per ounce due to dollar strength and rising Treasury yields. This trend reflects shifting investor preferences amid global uncertainty.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell to $79,000 amid heavy liquidations and bearish sentiment. The cryptocurrency market’s volatility continues to influence emerging markets like Brazil.
Markets and Companies
Petrobras
Petrobras reported a Q4 net loss of R$17 billion, reversing a profit of R$31 billion in Q4 2023. The decline was driven by currency devaluation and higher operational provisions. Despite these setbacks, Petrobras plans significant investments in pre-salt projects.
Embraer
Embraer surged after posting record-breaking Q4 revenue of R$13.87 billion. Analysts praised its free cash flow and improved margins.
Marfrig
Marfrig exceeded expectations with a Q4 profit of R$2.58 billion, showcasing resilience in the face of rising costs.
CPFL Energia
CPFL Energia reported strong Q4 results despite challenges in renewable energy projects.
Outlook
Today’s market direction will hinge on Brazil’s Budget Balance data alongside global cues from U.S. inflation figures, manufacturing activity in China, and German retail sales. Domestically, fiscal performance will influence investor confidence in Brazil’s economic stability, while international developments will steer commodity prices and capital flows.
Corporate earnings volatility and persistent political uncertainties may further amplify market swings, making today a critical test for Brazilian assets.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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