Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 10, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are bracing for a day packed with significant economic events that could steer market sentiment, policy directions, and the broader economic landscape. Today’s agenda includes critical domestic releases like the Focus Bulletin, which will outline market expectations for inflation, GDP, and interest rates.
On the international front, speeches from ECB President Lagarde and German Buba Balz could sway global markets, directly or indirectly impacting Brazil. Additionally, economic data from China and Australia on new loans and business confidence respectively will be pivotal, given Brazil’s export-oriented economy.
Economic Agenda for February 10, 2025
Brazil
08:25 AM – Focus Bulletin: This report from the Central Bank of Brazil provides a snapshot of market expectations for key economic indicators like inflation, GDP growth, and interest rates, which are essential for understanding market directions and policy adjustments.
Europe
09:00 AM – ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Her statements on monetary policy could influence global markets, including Brazil, through changes in investor confidence and currency movements.
11:00 AM – German Buba Balz Speaks: Insights from the Bundesbank could reflect broader Eurozone economic trends, impacting Brazilian exports and imports.
07:01 PM – BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan): Although directly concerning the UK, this data might influence global consumer sentiment and indirectly affect Brazilian trade.
Rest of the World
04:00 AM – New Loans (China): Given China’s role as a major trading partner for Brazil, new loan data can signal economic health and commodity demand.
05:00 AM – New Loans (Jan) – CNY: This further details China’s economic activity, crucial for Brazilian exports like soybeans and iron ore.
07:30 PM – NAB Business Confidence (Jan) (Australia): While less direct, Australia’s economic health can influence commodity prices, impacting Brazil’s resource sector.
Brazil’s Markets on Friday
On Friday, Brazil’s Ibovespa index took a significant hit, dropping 1.27% to close at 124,619.40 points, marking a weekly loss of 1.20%. This decline was largely due to fiscal concerns and global trade tensions.
Bradesco’s Q4 earnings, despite showing an 87.7% annual profit increase to R$5.4 billion, disappointed due to one-time gains from branch closures, leading to a 4% drop in BBDC4 shares.
The Brazilian real weakened for the second consecutive day, closing at R$5.7936 against the dollar on February 7, 2025. Domestic debates over expanding the Bolsa Família welfare program collided with global trade tensions spurred by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to impose reciprocal tariffs.
U.S. Markets on Friday
In the U.S., stocks took a downturn with the S&P 500 falling 0.9%, the Dow Jones losing 444 points, and the Nasdaq dropping 1.4%, largely due to concerns over inflation and tariffs. Treasury yields increased following a report from the University of Michigan indicating rising consumer inflation expectations. Trump’s mention of “reciprocal tariffs” further fueled market uncertainty.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Despite edging higher due to U.S. sanctions on Iran, oil closed another bearish week, reflecting ongoing supply concerns and geopolitical tensions. Read more…
Gold Prices
Gold reached a record high before retracting, influenced by trade war fears and a rush towards safe-haven assets. Read more…
Crypto Prices
The crypto market experienced turmoil with Bitcoin and Ethereum sliding amid heavy selling, highlighting the volatile nature of digital assets. Read more…
Companies and Markets
Brazil’s Trade Surplus Plummets 65%: Brazil recorded a $2.164 billion trade surplus in January 2025, a 65.1% collapse from January 2024’s $6.2 billion. Read more…
Industrial Revenue in Brazil Surges 5.6% in 2024: The Brazilian industrial sector celebrated a significant achievement in 2024, with real revenue climbing by 5.6% compared to 2023. Read more…
Bradesco (BBDC4): Despite a 20% net income increase in 2024 due to restructuring, Q4 earnings underperformed, causing a significant share drop. Read more…
CCR: Reported an 8.6% drop in adjusted net income for Q4 2024, reflecting challenges in the infrastructure sector. Read more…
Ultrapar: Announced its strategic investment plan for 2025, focusing on growth and efficiency. Read more…
BrasilAgro: Recorded a $3.3M loss in Q2 2024/2025, yet highlighted growth in revenue and EBITDA, indicating a complex operating environment. Read more…
Lula’s Inflation Approach: President Lula’s strategies to manage inflation involve consumer power and policy shifts, aiming to balance economic growth with price stability. Read more…
Multiplan: Achieved record profits in Q4 2024, plotting an aggressive growth trajectory. Read more…
Outlook
Today’s global and domestic economic indicators will be crucial in setting the tone for Brazil’s financial markets. Investors will closely watch for any shifts in fiscal policy, commodity prices, and international trade policies, especially in light of the announced U.S. tariff plans, which could have far-reaching implications for Brazilian exports, inflation, and overall market sentiment.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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