Brazil’s Financial market raises forecast for Selic to 12.25% in 2022 -Focus
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – After the Brazilian central bank left the direction of the Selic open, the market raised the forecast for the key interest rate at the end of the year amid inflationary pressures and increased the projection for price increases.
The Focus survey published by the central bank on Monday showed that the economists surveyed currently estimate the Selic at 12.25% as of the end of 2022, compared to a rate of 11.75% the previous week. For 2023, the Selic is estimated at 8.0%.
However, this is only a “guessing” snapshot and does not have any predictive value as to what will effectively happen.
Earlier this month, the central bank raised the Selic rate for the third consecutive time, by 1.5 percentage points to 10.75% per annum, indicating a reduction in the pace of adjustment at the next Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting in March.
Last week, the meeting minutes showed the monetary authority’s concern about the adoption of a fiscal policy aimed at controlling inflation in the short term, in a document interpreted by part of the market as harsh, although it did not provide information on the percentage of monetary tightening that will be adopted in the next meeting of the College.
The Focus also pointed out that the expectation for the IPCA increase this year has increased by 0.06 percentage points to 5.5%, while it remains at 3.5% for next year.
The midpoint of the official inflation target for 2022 is 3.5% and for 2023 3.25%, both with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
Consumer inflation in Brazil began 2022 with a slowdown, but with the highest rate for the month of January in six years, 0.54%, reaching 10.38% cumulatively over 12 months.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+1.55%
174,576.80
+1.55%
65,522.56
-0.38%
11,450.75
-0.76%
3,009,029
+0.46%
2,508.47
-0.09%
60,117.56
+0.55%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,576.80 | +1.55% | +21.85% | 171,906.72 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
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