Brazil’s Diesel Imports Surge as Economy Thrives

Brazil’s diesel imports will hit a two-year high in October due to corn harvests and economic growth driving trucking demand.

Diesel imports are expected to reach 452,000 barrels per day, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler. September also saw strong diesel imports as farmers ramped up machinery for the corn harvest.

Most of this corn travels by truck to ports and consumption centers. Brazil’s central bank recently raised its growth forecast for 2024, reflecting optimism about Latin America’s largest economy.

The country’s total diesel demand has grown over the past three months. It hit a one-year high in August, serving as a barometer for economic activity. Most of Brazil’s goods move by truck, making diesel consumption a key indicator.

However, Brazil’s refineries cannot produce enough diesel to meet demand. This leaves the country chronically short of this fuel.

Russia has been the main supplier of imported diesel to Brazil. European and U.S. buyers have shunned Russian fuel, creating an opportunity for Brazil.

The situation is changing, though. Russian refineries are undergoing maintenance, and U.S. diesel prices have dropped.

This has allowed the U.S. to increase its share of Brazil’s diesel imports. Felipe Pérez from S&P Global noted that the price gap between Russian and U.S. Gulf Coast diesel is narrowing.

Hedge funds became the most bearish on diesel last month since records began in June 2006. This shift reflects weakening global economic outlooks.

Competition for diesel shipments to Brazil may intensify as new refineries in Nigeria and Mexico come online, potentially leading to oversupply.