Brazil Stocks Fall 1.06% as Bradesco Drops | Brazil Market Report, Oct 29
Key Facts
- Brazil’s main stock index, the Ibovespa, fell 1.06% to 169,186 points on Thursday, its fourth lower close since the election.
- Bradesco, one of Brazil’s largest private banks, lost about 3.5%; Banco do Brasil, the state-controlled lender, fell about 2.0%, while WEG, an electric-motor maker, gained about 4.4%.
- The real weakened about 0.6% to R$5.38 per US dollar as the S&P 500, the main US stock index, fell 0.30% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.38%.
- For US investors: the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), a US-listed Brazil fund, lost 1.43% to US$33.14, and Vale, the iron-ore miner, fell 2.53% in New York.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a prediction market, puts 77.8% on an unchanged Brazilian interest rate in November, as of 29 October 2026, 8:45 pm ET.
Today’s Focus
Brazil’s stock market had hoped to stop falling on Thursday and instead set a new low for the post-election slide. The Ibovespa, the main index of the São Paulo exchange (B3), fell 1.06% to 169,186 points.
The index ended below the 169,516 level it touched during Monday’s crash, and the real slipped about 0.6% against the dollar. Wall Street was weak too, so Brazil did not fall alone.
The index is now about 17.5% below its close on Friday 23 October, the last session before the presidential runoff result.
What matters today. A weaker real and falling shares at the same time mean foreign investors are still selling Brazil, which raises the cost of borrowing for companies and the state.
01 The session in one read
The Ibovespa closed at 169,186 points on Thursday 29 October, down 1.06% from 171,006 on Wednesday. Every close since the election has been lower, with Monday’s fall of 13.88% the biggest.
Bank shares were again the weak spot, though not all of them: Bradesco fell about 3.5% and Banco do Brasil about 2.0%, while Itaú, the largest private bank, lost only about 0.6% and Santander Brasil, the local unit of Spain’s Santander, gained about 1.2%. Vale, the iron-ore miner, fell about 2.2%.
Wall Street also ended lower. The S&P 500 lost 0.30% to 7,720 and the Nasdaq, heavy in technology shares, fell 1.38%, so part of the pressure came from abroad.
Brazil’s 1.06% fall was larger than the S&P 500’s 0.30% loss but smaller than the Nasdaq’s 1.38%, and the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose 1.72% to 17.20. That points to both local and global pressure.
We could not confirm a single trigger for the day’s fall. The variable to watch is whether foreign money keeps leaving, which the real’s slide suggests.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 169,186 | −1.06% | Fourth lower close since the vote |
| USD/BRL | 5.3806 | +0.58% | Real weaker |
| S&P 500 | 7,720 | −0.30% | Wall Street lower |
| Nasdaq | 26,185 | −1.38% | Tech shares fell |
| VIX volatility | 17.20 | +1.72% | Fear gauge rose |
| US 10-year yield | 4.94% | −0.08 pt | Dollar rates eased |
The Ibovespa’s 1.06% fall left it about 17.5% below its 23 October close. The dollar gained 0.58% to R$5.3806, so the real lost ground.
The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.94% from 5.02%, which normally helps emerging markets, yet Brazilian shares still fell. The US dollar index slipped 0.33% to 101.85. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Brazil — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
169,186.42
-1.06%
+19.56%
171,006.10
178,526
175,157
—
USD/BRL
5.34
-1.32%
-0.84%
5.42
5.42
5.30
—
SELIC
13.75%
—
—
—
—
—
PETR4
53.31
-1.06%
+77.70%
53.88
53.70
52.83
43,239,500
VALE3
62.88
-2.33%
+1.98%
64.38
64.43
62.80
24,652,300
ITUB4
41.42
-0.67%
+11.30%
41.70
42.60
41.15
28,160,700
BBDC4
15.69
-1.63%
-13.88%
15.95
16.30
15.67
65,766,400
BBAS3
17.59
+0.69%
-15.59%
17.47
18.31
17.51
67,844,600
B3SA3
15.27
+1.33%
+21.71%
15.07
15.78
15.20
75,282,000
ABEV3
15.40
+0.20%
+26.75%
15.37
15.68
15.31
27,307,400
WEGE3
45.78
+2.81%
+10.06%
44.53
47.08
45.06
9,823,200
PRIO3
69.21
-2.71%
+87.14%
71.14
70.98
69.15
6,663,200
SUZB3
47.14
-0.55%
-3.79%
47.40
47.84
46.10
7,151,800
RENT3
31.14
-1.67%
-20.73%
31.67
32.68
31.02
19,092,400
AZZA3
16.72
+1.15%
-42.24%
16.53
17.42
16.72
4,875,400
CSNA3
4.76
-4.99%
-47.09%
5.01
5.14
4.76
14,327,900
GGBR4
24.87
-2.28%
+36.28%
25.45
26.20
24.79
7,507,900
ENEV3
26.79
+0.45%
+49.78%
26.67
27.35
26.30
12,263,000
Live Company IntelligenceBanco do Brasil S.A. — the full investor dossier
Valuation & profitability
Price & risk
$16.3452-wk high
$27.36
Revenue trend · 6y
Ownership
Dividend
03 Why it moved: weak banks, weak real
Brazilian lenders were mixed. Bradesco dropped about 3.5% and Banco do Brasil about 2.0%, but Itaú lost only about 0.6% and Santander Brasil rose about 1.2%. We could not confirm why the sector split.
Other large names fell sharply: Ambev, the brewer, lost about 4.4%, and B3, the exchange operator itself, about 3.3%. Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company, slipped only about 0.6% while Brent oil rose about 0.6% to roughly US$111.
WEG, a maker of electric motors, gained about 4.4% and Suzano, a pulp producer, about 3.4%. Both earn much of their income in dollars, which a weaker real helps.
The US economy grew 3.4% at an annual rate in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the US statistics agency, said on Thursday. The RT economic calendar had a forecast of 3.2% and the second quarter was 2.2%, so US growth was firmer than expected.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradesco (BBDC4) | Large private bank | −3.5% | Weakest big bank |
| Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) | State-controlled bank | −2.0% | Credit-risk worries |
| Itaú (ITUB4) | Largest private bank | −0.6% | Held up better |
| Santander Brasil (SANB11) | Local unit of Spain’s Santander | +1.2% | Bucked the trend |
| Vale (VALE3) | Iron-ore miner | −2.2% | New York shares −2.53% |
| Petrobras (PETR4) | State-controlled oil company | −0.6% | New York shares −0.59% |
| WEG (WEGE3) | Electric-motor maker | +4.4% | Biggest gainer here |
Moves are as of the B3 close, around 5:00 pm in São Paulo, and are rounded. Bradesco’s New York shares lost 3.66% to US$2.63, while Itaú’s lost 0.41%.
For US investors, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell 1.43% to US$33.14 and Vale’s New York shares dropped 2.53% to US$11.18. Petrobras’s US shares lost 0.59% to US$21.90.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −1.06% |
| IPC | Mexico | +0.87% |
| IPSA | Chile | −1.25% |
| Merval | Argentina | −1.0% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | −0.63% |
Brazil was not alone in the red: Chile’s IPSA fell 1.25%, Colombia’s COLCAP 0.63% and Argentina’s Merval about 1%.
Mexico was the exception. Its IPC rose 0.87% even as the peso weakened, helped by airport operators, cement and food companies.
06 The technical picture
The Ibovespa opened at 171,006, hit a high of 171,403 and a low of 168,765, and closed at 169,186, near the bottom of that range. Sellers kept control into the close.
The close sits below Monday’s intraday low of 169,516, a level traders had watched as the line below which the slide could extend. A close back above Wednesday’s 171,006 would be the first sign that buyers are returning.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, traders put the chance that Brazil’s central bank leaves its benchmark interest rate, the Selic, unchanged at its November meeting at 77.8%. They see a 20.5% chance of a cut of 0.25 percentage points and 0.4% for a rise of 0.25 points. About US$119,000 has been traded on this market, as of 29 October 2026, 8:45 pm ET.
Prices on prediction markets are bets, not polls or forecasts by officials.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Government fiscal signals: Any statement on spending rules or taxes can move bank shares and the real quickly.
- Bank earnings: As the large lenders publish results, investors will look for signs that credit quality is slipping.
- USD/BRL near R$5.38: A move back above Monday’s R$5.42 would signal renewed stress for the real.
- US rates and growth: With US growth at 3.4% and the 10-year yield at 4.94%, dollar rates keep shaping flows into Brazil.
Background: Brazil Stocks Fall 2.68% as Banks Slide.
Background: Brazil Stocks Plunge 13.88% After Lula Win.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Ibovespa fall 1.06% on Thursday?
Bank and consumer shares led the fall, with Bradesco down about 3.5%, and Wall Street was weaker too. We could not confirm a single trigger.
What is the Ibovespa?
It is the main stock index of Brazil’s B3 exchange in São Paulo. It tracks the most traded Brazilian companies, such as Petrobras, Vale and Itaú.
Did the Brazilian real weaken?
Yes, modestly. The dollar rose 0.58% to R$5.3806, so the real lost ground.
How did Brazil do compared with the US?
Brazil fell more than the S&P 500, which lost 0.30%. The Brazil ETF EWZ lost 1.43% in New York.
Market data: RT; exchange figures from B3
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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